archromat

"Quasi GM"

Moncton, NB • Canada • 37 Years Old • Male

Why I Think Nashville Wins Handedly Over the Pens

Give the Penguins full credit. They don't have Letang this year and with their starting goaltender injured, they were still able to survive the first three series, despite the last two going the distance, especially with Ottawa taking them to double OT. Ottawa was a fine Cinderella story with storylines coming from all over their locker-room, but Cinderella usually gets stomped out by teams that are just, in the end, better, unless your name is Ray Bourque or Lanny McDonald.

Now obviously, you look at the game statistically and make results based on how series SHOULD go but psychology always rears its ugly head. It's an unpredictable x factor. You look at Chicago v. Nashville first round, you think Chicago has the obvious psychological edge, but Nashville sweeps 'em out. Then you make a statistical prediction like "well x team should score four goals a game and y team two goals a game, so x team should win this in four" and it takes a full seven, while another team who is only slightly better than their opposition will win a quick one in five because they were better every game.

Generally, the rule is that the most explosive the offense of a team, the less predictable the length of the series. But that's another conversation altogether.

Nashville has had a remarkable Cup run so far, and I don't think it's about to stop.

I use a different system of statistics that I accidentally stumbled upon in 2012 during the shortened season (my predictions went 14-1). When factoring the teams' records against eventual playoff teams in the last half or third of the year and factoring the amount of goals they score on each other, you can generally say who's the better team on paper and be right four out of five times. My math predictions are 11-3 this year by using this element and combining it with average goals for expected per game and goals against while their starting goaltender is playing. Every year, they end up to be around 11-4 or 12-3.

This year, they pick Nashville over the Penguins, and it's not even close. Here's why.

The top five teams in momentum I had were the following:
1. Anaheim
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. Pittsburgh
5. St. Louis

These were based on their records against eventual playoff teams going into the playoffs. Nashville eliminated three of them and they're going after the fourth.

Nashville's faced tough competition all playoffs, and it has not at all deterred their offense or their defense. They are number one in defense with sub 2 GAA, and I believe third in offense scoring just under 3 goals a game. Pittsburgh has only a slightly better GF at 3.05 and an average GAA of about 2.32. Pittsburgh did not have easy opponents in what Ottawa had eventually become and in Washington, but Columbus was a cold team.

Pittsburgh has had a depleted defense for the last two series'. Nashville's offense lost a role player in Fiala and their best center in Johansen. However, Nashville are 2-0 without Johansen, so that's not a big deal.

If these stats were adjusted to norm, they'd tip even more in Nashville's favour given that Nashville, overall, played harder teams. Will psychology and experience beat Nashville? Doubt it; they manhandled the Blackhawks.

I know the Penguins are defending Cup champions, and I know a lot of pundits are calling a close one, but on paper, it's Nashville by a mile. With a record of 12-4 against three of the league's five best teams coming into the playoffs, I doubt a defense-depleted Penguins team is going to stop them.

And goaltending will almost never tip a series from a team whose offense comes from the back-end so you can forget about miracles coming from Murray. I can tell you that as a New Jersey Devils fan who watched them win precisely in this way, especially in 2000 and 2003 with Rafalski and Niedermeyer. Matt Murray, Marc Andre Fleury... Nashville are going to score at least 3 goals a game against these Penguins. Whether it'll be 3-2 or 6-3, it'll come out in Nashville's favour.

I think the Stanley Cup is about to have a mustard stain on it. If Pittsburgh win this series, full credit to them, because they'll have beaten a team that's put on one of the best playoff performances I've ever seen.

edit: never anticipated Rinne to straight up lose 3 games; ah well

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