This blog will basically break down a bunch of numbers associated with Shawn Horcoff since the lock-out, and look at comparable players/contracts.
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Horcoff since the lockout:
09/10: 11P/23GP =0.48P/GP Playing injured, now w/o Hemsky
08/09: 53P/80GP =0.66P/GP Roughly 0.7
07/08: 50P/53GP =0.94P/GP Roughly 1
06/07: 51P/80GP =0.64P/GP Roughly 0.7
05/06: 73P/79GP =0.92P/GP Roughly 1
Time On Ice numbers:
09/10: ES TOI/G: 14:55; SH TOI/G: 2:13; PP TOI/G: 3:14; T TOI/G: 20:22
08/09: ES TOI/G: 14:19; SH TOI/G: 3:17; PP TOI/G: 3:44; T TOI/G 21:21
07/08: ES TOI/G: 15:15; SH TOI/G: 2:47; PP TOI/G: 4:10; T TOI/G: 22:13
06/07: ES TOI/G: 13:51; SH TOI/G: 3:25; PP TOI/G: 3:32; T TOI/G: 20:49
05/06: ES TOI/G: 13:21; SH TOI/G: 2:50; PP TOI/G: 3:46; T TOI/G: 19:58
Notice that when Horcoff's SH time decreases and his PP time increases, his point production goes up to around 0.93 rather than 0.65. I would expect Horcoff's numbers to improve this season if his TOI numbers continue the same trend. (Although, W/o Hemsky, probably not up to 0.93PPG...)
09/10: 33rd, 376 taken, 48.9% 23GP = 16/game
08/09: 1st, 1756 taken, 53.9% 80GP =22/game
07/08: 54th, 963 taken, 50.6% 53GP =18/game
06/07: 13th, 1422 taken, 50.6% 80GP = 17/game
05/06: 14th, 1421 taken, 52.7% 79GP =18/game
Clearly there is something wrong with Horcoff's shoulder. I expect his numbers to improve over the season.
Comparables from Last Season:
Chris Drury: 56P/81GP =0.7PPG
Age: 33, Cap hit: $7 050 000
Nik Antropov: 59P/81GP =0.73PPG
Age: 29; Cap hit: $4 062 500
Ryan Kesler: 59/82GP =0.72PPG
Age: 25; Cap hit: $1 750 000 (Will sign new contract this year, RFA)
Shawn Horcoff: 53P/80GP =0.66
Age: 31; Cap hit: $5 500 000
Rod Brind'Amour: 51P/80GP =0.64PPG
Age: 39, Cap hit: $3 600 000
Jordan Staal: 49P/82GP=0.6PPG (very comparable TOI numbers...)
Age: 21; Cap hit: $4 000 000
David Legwand: 42P/73GP =0.58PPG
Age: 29; Cap hit: $4 500 000
Comparables so far this season (AKA: other big contract players who are struggling):
Eric Staal: 9P/17GP, Cap hit: $8 250 000
Shawn Gomez: 11P/23GP, Cap hit: $7 357 000
Thomas Vanek: 15P/22GP, Cap hit: $7 143 000
Chris Drury: 9P/22GP, Cap hit: $7 050 000
Paul Kariya: 11P/25GP, Cap hit: $6 000 000
Shawn Horcoff: 11P/23GP, Cap Hit: $5 500 000
Jason Pominville: 16P/24GP, Cap hit: $5 300 000
Brian Rolston: 13P/23GP, Cap hit: $5 062 000
Alexei Kovalev: 11P/22GP, Cap hit: $5 000 000
Nylander, Michael: 0P/0GP, Cap hit: $4 875 000
Patrice Bergeron: 18P/26GP, Cap hit: $4 750 000
Shane Doan: 18P/27GP, Cap hit: $4 550 000
Martin Erat: 9P/23GP, Cap Hit: $4 500 000
David Legwand: 14P/26GP, Cap Hit: $4 500 000
So, to sum up:
There are a lot of players struggling this season, some with much larger cap hits than Horcoff, others with slightly less. It is very early to be screaming for trades, and stupid to sell low.
He will probably be a 0.6-0.7PPG player, especially with all the SH ice time he gets.
He plays the toughest competition and takes the most faceoffs.
He leads all forwards in ES TOI/G and SH TOI/G this season, but is 5th among forwards in PP TOI/G.
Take out some SH and add some PP time, and Horcoff could once again hit 0.8 or 0.9PPG.
Looking at TOI from 2008/2009, good comparables for Horcoff are: Jordan Staal (49P/82GP), Ryan Kesler (59P/82GP), and Michal Handzus (42P/82GP, $4 mil Cap). With his current TOI numbers, I expect him to finish somewhere around 60-65P/76GP, if he plays every game left this season.
Kesler will use Horcoff's contract to negotiate his own and he is in for a HUGE raise. Bank on that.
Horcoff's contract: not as bad as many people make it out to seem... Just hope that Horcoff starts playing more like Kesler (24P/26GP, even) and less like Brind'Amour (8P/27G, -19)
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