The big reconfigured standings post
Posted 3:33 PM ET | Comments 3
Hello again.
As usual, my compulsions toward both hockey and numbers have led to to create a big ol' NHL spreadsheet, in which every team's record is broken down into its constituent components -- regulation wins, overtime wins, shootout wins, shootout loses, overtime loses and regulation loses.
With these numbers, I can run any kind of standings adjustment I choose. While these standings adjustments should always be taken with a grain of salt (teams set their game strategies based on the current point systems; there's no way to truly know how teams might change their approaches based on different schemes), I find them to be an informative and entertaining "what if?" It's always fun to see how teams get their points, and how different systems might affect conference rankings or closeness.
Also, I ranked the teams by straight points order, with no regard to divisions. Division winners are marked with an asterisk. Also, where ties occurred, they are left as ties, since preferred tiebreaking procedures may vary by system.
Anyway, here we go:
The Olympic System: Three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, one point for an overtime or shootout loss.
*T1: New York Rangers, 148
*T1: Pittsburgh, 148
T3: Philadelphia, 140
*T3: Boston, 140
5: New Jersey, 134
*6: Florida, 125
7: Washington, 123
8: Ottawa, 122
9: Buffalo, 116
T10: Winnipeg, 111
T10: Carolina, 111
12: Tampa Bay, 109
13: Toronto, 106
14: New York Islanders, 103
15. Montreal, 102
*1. St. Louis, 151 (President's Trophy)
*2. Vancouver, 147
3. Nashville, 144
4. Detroit, 138
5. Chicago, 135
*6. Phoenix, 130
T7. Los Angeles, 128
T7. San Jose, 128
9. Calgary, 122
10. Dallas, 120
11. Colorado, 113
12. Anaheim, 109
13. Minnesota, 103
14. Edmonton, 99
15. Columbus, 88
The Modified Olympic System: Three points for a RW or OTW, two points for a SOW, one point for a SOL.
*1. NY Rangers, 154 (President's Trophy)
2. Pittsburgh, 147
3. Philadelphia, 144
*4. Boston, 141
5. New Jersey, 136
*6. Washington, 126
7. Ottawa, 121
8. Florida, 119
9. Buffalo, 117
10. Tampa Bay, 114
11. Winnipeg, 111
12. Toronto, 106
13. Carolina, 104
14. Montreal, 100
15. NY Islanders, 99
*1. St. Louis, 153
*2. Vancouver, 152
3. Nashville, 144
4. Detroit, 138
5. Chicago, 135
*6. Phoenix, 130
7. Los Angeles, 126
8. San Jose, 125
9. Dallas, 123
10. Calgary, 117
11. Colorado, 116
12. Anaheim, 106
13. Minnesota, 103
14. Edmonton, 98
15. Columbus, 88
The Five-Point System: Five for a RW, four for an OTW, three for a SOW, two for a SOL, one for an OTW.
*1. NY Rangers, 251
2. Pittsburgh, 244
3. Philadelphia, 237
*4. Boston, 232
5. New Jersey, 222
*6. Washington, 207
7. Florida, 206
8. Ottawa, 202
9. Buffalo, 194
T10. Tampa Bay, 185
T10. Winnipeg, 185
12. Carolina, 182
13. Toronto, 177
14. Montreal, 177
15. NY Islanders, 168
*1. St. Louis, 255 (President's Trophy)
*2. Vancouver, 248
3. Nashville, 240
4. Detroit, 228
5. Chicago, 225
*6. Phoenix, 228
7. Los Angeles, 213
8. San Jose, 210
9. Calgary, 202
10. Dallas, 201
11. Colorado, 188
12. Anaheim, 181
13. Minnesota, 171
14. Edmonton, 165
15. Columbus, 147
Win, Lose or Tie: RW and OTW are two points, SOW and SOL are one point (because in this system, shootouts don't occur -- any game that would have ended in a shootout now ends in a tie).
*1. NY Rangers, 103
2. Philadelphia, 97
3. Pittsburgh, 96
*4. Boston, 92
5. New Jersey, 88
*6. Washington, 84
7. Florida, 81
8. Ottawa, 80
9. Buffalo, 78
10. Tampa Bay, 76
11. Winnipeg, 74
T12. Carolina, 71
T12. Toronto, 71
14. Montreal, 69
15. NY Islanders, 65
*1. St. Louis, 104 (President's Trophy)
*2. Vancouver, 101
3. Nashville, 96
T4. Detroit, 90
T4. Chicago, 90
*6. Phoenix, 88
7. Los Angeles, 85
8. San Jose, 82
9. Dallas, 81
10. Calgary, 80
11. Colorado, 75
12. Anaheim, 72
13. Minnesota, 68
14. Edmonton, 66
15. Columbus, 59
The Old-School Win, Lose or Tie: All games end in 60 minutes. A win is two points, and any game that went to overtime is counted as a tie.
*T1. NY Rangers, 97
*T1. Pittsburgh, 97
3. Philadelphia, 93
*4. Boston, 91
*5. Florida, 87
6. New Jersey, 86
T7. Washington, 81
T7. Ottawa, 81
9. Carolina, 78
10. Buffalo, 77
11. Winnipeg, 74
T12. Tampa Bay, 71
T12. Toronto, 71
T12. Montreal, 71
15. NY Islanders, 69
*1. St. Louis, 102 (President's Trophy)
*T2. Vancouver, 96
T2. Nashville, 96
T4. Detroit, 90
T4. Chicago, 90
*6. Phoenix, 88
7. Los Angeles, 87
T8. San Jose, 85
T8. Calgary, 85 (SJ and CGY have identical records and are tied head-to-head under this configuration; SJ wins the likely remaining tiebreaker of goal differential)
10. Dallas, 78
11. Anaheim, 75
12. Colorado, 72
13. Minnesota, 68
14. Edmonton, 67
15. Columbus, 59
The One-Point Shootout System: Two points for a RW or OTW. One point for a SOW. No points for any kind of loss.
*1. NY Rangers, 98 (President's Trophy)
2. Pittsburgh, 93
3. Philadelphia, 90
*4. Boston, 89
5. New Jersey, 84
*6. Washington, 80
7. Ottawa, 76
8. Tampa Bay, 73
9. Buffalo, 71
T10. Florida, 70
T10. Winnipeg, 70
12. Toronto, 66
13. Carolina, 65
14. NY Islanders, 61
15. Montreal, 57
*T1. St. Louis, 94
*T1. Vancouver, 94
3. Nashville, 91
4. Detroit, 87
5. Chicago, 83
*6. Phoenix, 78
T7. San Jose, 77
T7. Dallas, 77
9. Los Angeles, 76
10. Colorado, 73
11. Calgary, 71
12. Anaheim, 65
T13. Minnesota, 59
T13. Edmonton, 59
15. Columbus, 54
Additional Notes
-Only once do the 16 playoff teams actually change -- Tampa enters for Florida and Dallas for Los Angeles in the one-point shootout system.
-The best team in regulation was St. Louis, with a .656 winning percentage (42 RW, 22 RL). The worst was Columbus (.333; 23 RW, 46 RL).
-The best team after 60 was Boston (.733; 11-4). The worst was Carolina (.200; 4-16).
-Florida (25), Vancouver (24) and Minnesota (24) played in the greatest number of overtime games. Columbus played only 13 overtime games. Boston played 15, and Nashville and Dallas played 16.
-Points percentage increases dramatically in overtime games (every single team picked up more points per game in overtime games than regulation games, since everybody starts at 1 and each win moves the needle up). That's one of the things I hate most about the NHL points system today -- it encourages teams to play for overtime rather than aggressively trying to win the game. Statistically speaking, you're better off taking a 25 percent chance to win in OT (1.25 points per game) than a 60 percent chance of winning in regulation (1.2 points per game).
As usual, my compulsions toward both hockey and numbers have led to to create a big ol' NHL spreadsheet, in which every team's record is broken down into its constituent components -- regulation wins, overtime wins, shootout wins, shootout loses, overtime loses and regulation loses.
With these numbers, I can run any kind of standings adjustment I choose. While these standings adjustments should always be taken with a grain of salt (teams set their game strategies based on the current point systems; there's no way to truly know how teams might change their approaches based on different schemes), I find them to be an informative and entertaining "what if?" It's always fun to see how teams get their points, and how different systems might affect conference rankings or closeness.
Also, I ranked the teams by straight points order, with no regard to divisions. Division winners are marked with an asterisk. Also, where ties occurred, they are left as ties, since preferred tiebreaking procedures may vary by system.
Anyway, here we go:
The Olympic System: Three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, one point for an overtime or shootout loss.
*T1: New York Rangers, 148
*T1: Pittsburgh, 148
T3: Philadelphia, 140
*T3: Boston, 140
5: New Jersey, 134
*6: Florida, 125
7: Washington, 123
8: Ottawa, 122
9: Buffalo, 116
T10: Winnipeg, 111
T10: Carolina, 111
12: Tampa Bay, 109
13: Toronto, 106
14: New York Islanders, 103
15. Montreal, 102
*1. St. Louis, 151 (President's Trophy)
*2. Vancouver, 147
3. Nashville, 144
4. Detroit, 138
5. Chicago, 135
*6. Phoenix, 130
T7. Los Angeles, 128
T7. San Jose, 128
9. Calgary, 122
10. Dallas, 120
11. Colorado, 113
12. Anaheim, 109
13. Minnesota, 103
14. Edmonton, 99
15. Columbus, 88
The Modified Olympic System: Three points for a RW or OTW, two points for a SOW, one point for a SOL.
*1. NY Rangers, 154 (President's Trophy)
2. Pittsburgh, 147
3. Philadelphia, 144
*4. Boston, 141
5. New Jersey, 136
*6. Washington, 126
7. Ottawa, 121
8. Florida, 119
9. Buffalo, 117
10. Tampa Bay, 114
11. Winnipeg, 111
12. Toronto, 106
13. Carolina, 104
14. Montreal, 100
15. NY Islanders, 99
*1. St. Louis, 153
*2. Vancouver, 152
3. Nashville, 144
4. Detroit, 138
5. Chicago, 135
*6. Phoenix, 130
7. Los Angeles, 126
8. San Jose, 125
9. Dallas, 123
10. Calgary, 117
11. Colorado, 116
12. Anaheim, 106
13. Minnesota, 103
14. Edmonton, 98
15. Columbus, 88
The Five-Point System: Five for a RW, four for an OTW, three for a SOW, two for a SOL, one for an OTW.
*1. NY Rangers, 251
2. Pittsburgh, 244
3. Philadelphia, 237
*4. Boston, 232
5. New Jersey, 222
*6. Washington, 207
7. Florida, 206
8. Ottawa, 202
9. Buffalo, 194
T10. Tampa Bay, 185
T10. Winnipeg, 185
12. Carolina, 182
13. Toronto, 177
14. Montreal, 177
15. NY Islanders, 168
*1. St. Louis, 255 (President's Trophy)
*2. Vancouver, 248
3. Nashville, 240
4. Detroit, 228
5. Chicago, 225
*6. Phoenix, 228
7. Los Angeles, 213
8. San Jose, 210
9. Calgary, 202
10. Dallas, 201
11. Colorado, 188
12. Anaheim, 181
13. Minnesota, 171
14. Edmonton, 165
15. Columbus, 147
Win, Lose or Tie: RW and OTW are two points, SOW and SOL are one point (because in this system, shootouts don't occur -- any game that would have ended in a shootout now ends in a tie).
*1. NY Rangers, 103
2. Philadelphia, 97
3. Pittsburgh, 96
*4. Boston, 92
5. New Jersey, 88
*6. Washington, 84
7. Florida, 81
8. Ottawa, 80
9. Buffalo, 78
10. Tampa Bay, 76
11. Winnipeg, 74
T12. Carolina, 71
T12. Toronto, 71
14. Montreal, 69
15. NY Islanders, 65
*1. St. Louis, 104 (President's Trophy)
*2. Vancouver, 101
3. Nashville, 96
T4. Detroit, 90
T4. Chicago, 90
*6. Phoenix, 88
7. Los Angeles, 85
8. San Jose, 82
9. Dallas, 81
10. Calgary, 80
11. Colorado, 75
12. Anaheim, 72
13. Minnesota, 68
14. Edmonton, 66
15. Columbus, 59
The Old-School Win, Lose or Tie: All games end in 60 minutes. A win is two points, and any game that went to overtime is counted as a tie.
*T1. NY Rangers, 97
*T1. Pittsburgh, 97
3. Philadelphia, 93
*4. Boston, 91
*5. Florida, 87
6. New Jersey, 86
T7. Washington, 81
T7. Ottawa, 81
9. Carolina, 78
10. Buffalo, 77
11. Winnipeg, 74
T12. Tampa Bay, 71
T12. Toronto, 71
T12. Montreal, 71
15. NY Islanders, 69
*1. St. Louis, 102 (President's Trophy)
*T2. Vancouver, 96
T2. Nashville, 96
T4. Detroit, 90
T4. Chicago, 90
*6. Phoenix, 88
7. Los Angeles, 87
T8. San Jose, 85
T8. Calgary, 85 (SJ and CGY have identical records and are tied head-to-head under this configuration; SJ wins the likely remaining tiebreaker of goal differential)
10. Dallas, 78
11. Anaheim, 75
12. Colorado, 72
13. Minnesota, 68
14. Edmonton, 67
15. Columbus, 59
The One-Point Shootout System: Two points for a RW or OTW. One point for a SOW. No points for any kind of loss.
*1. NY Rangers, 98 (President's Trophy)
2. Pittsburgh, 93
3. Philadelphia, 90
*4. Boston, 89
5. New Jersey, 84
*6. Washington, 80
7. Ottawa, 76
8. Tampa Bay, 73
9. Buffalo, 71
T10. Florida, 70
T10. Winnipeg, 70
12. Toronto, 66
13. Carolina, 65
14. NY Islanders, 61
15. Montreal, 57
*T1. St. Louis, 94
*T1. Vancouver, 94
3. Nashville, 91
4. Detroit, 87
5. Chicago, 83
*6. Phoenix, 78
T7. San Jose, 77
T7. Dallas, 77
9. Los Angeles, 76
10. Colorado, 73
11. Calgary, 71
12. Anaheim, 65
T13. Minnesota, 59
T13. Edmonton, 59
15. Columbus, 54
Additional Notes
-Only once do the 16 playoff teams actually change -- Tampa enters for Florida and Dallas for Los Angeles in the one-point shootout system.
-The best team in regulation was St. Louis, with a .656 winning percentage (42 RW, 22 RL). The worst was Columbus (.333; 23 RW, 46 RL).
-The best team after 60 was Boston (.733; 11-4). The worst was Carolina (.200; 4-16).
-Florida (25), Vancouver (24) and Minnesota (24) played in the greatest number of overtime games. Columbus played only 13 overtime games. Boston played 15, and Nashville and Dallas played 16.
-Points percentage increases dramatically in overtime games (every single team picked up more points per game in overtime games than regulation games, since everybody starts at 1 and each win moves the needle up). That's one of the things I hate most about the NHL points system today -- it encourages teams to play for overtime rather than aggressively trying to win the game. Statistically speaking, you're better off taking a 25 percent chance to win in OT (1.25 points per game) than a 60 percent chance of winning in regulation (1.2 points per game).
Great blog!
Well done. I think we should go with the modified olympic system, but any system that gives equal points to each game will do.
Looks like it doesn't make much difference in the standings whether the loser point is given or not.