Looking forward...
Posted 3:02 PM ET | Comments 0
Yes its been a few days since my first blog, and I did say I would attempt one at a fairly regular interval. But its the end of the season and really we were only a handful of points away from a lock on last place (as if we didn't already know). Don't get me wrong, living in Vancouver it was great watching the Oilers destroy the '11President Trophy winners 6 - 1 over the course of two games (when they were all expecting a reversal of score for both). And then they got pasted by Calgary. I don't dislike Calgary like most Oiler fans, nor are they even close to my favorites... They are more that strange cousin you are forced to visit every once in a while. Aslong as its not prolonged I don't mind. And it was great to watch Kipper and Iggy do their magic to shut up all their idiot fans who had been demanding that they get traded at the deadline.
No this won't be about the Oiler games towards the end of the season... because they just don't matter. I will watch; I will cheer; and I will be a general nuisance to those who watch along side me at my place of work... but we are a lock for last place and a guarantee top two pick that will help bolster our team next year - cool. So instead of doing this as a preview or review of games coming or past, I figured it would be more interesting to explain my thoughts on what the Oilers roster may (and should in my opinion) look like next year.
Top Line:
Hemsky - He will play next year, and he will most likely stay healthy for it all. He says he wants to stay in Edmonton, and he has had all those meetings with Tambs and Katz. If the Oilers were going to trade them they would have by now (unless there is a HUGE return for him over this summer). The guy is a natural playmaker, dangler and has a great shot. I think he will play less contact then he has (taking the body and being in the mix were the scenarios in which he has been injured). I would really like to see him keep at his point per game that he has established (and is capable of) for next year. I would imagine him playing 75+ games next year.
Hall - Whats not to like about the guy. I can go into his resume, but there is no point. We all know what he is. And he will make everyone who works the line with him better for it. What I like the most about him though is how well he did at center. Don't quote me as saying he should play center, I am not saying that. What I am saying is that with him on the top line he can help pull some center duty. Increasing the strength as a whole.
Gagner - This one may get me shot... or at the very least smacked. Is Gagner a #1 center on most NHL teams. No. He is a very capable #2 and an extremely reliable #3. However, the Oilers are not most NHL teams. They have probably the greatest pool of depth in their forwards of any team, and most of it is wingers. Gagner will work on his face offs, maintain his smallish frame and will probably try to figure a way that will make him harder to knock of the puck. I believe that given the right wingers, his numbers will climb and everyone will look at that way. Individually he isn't the #1 we are clambering for, but put him between Hall and Hemsky I think they will make him a good #1.
Summary: With both Gagner and Hall able to take faces offs - and if both can get it to a respectable high forty for next season (and even higher in seasons after - baby steps after all). The line has the affordability to get a way without the all star #1 center that most fans expect, want or demand through trade or draft. Each player has their strengths, so lets use them as such. Add in Hemsky for play making (let the puck rotate through him, and keep him at the point so he isn't fighting along the boards - let the much sturdier Gagner and Hall do that for him) and I think this is a legitimate top line in the NHL that will get more respect as the communication and cohesiveness grows between them.
Second Line:
Eberle - Minus his mid season injury (that seemed very Brule-esque) Eberle has been super human. The amount of physical abuse he has taken into the boards and around the net, and the fact he gets up finishes his shift and keeps going is just astounding... and probably quite frustrating for other teams. Add to him the fact that he can stick handle, shoot and is difficult to push of the puck must make him infuriating to other teams. Much like Hall he makes everyone on his line better and while the two are magic together I believe its best for the organization as a whole to divide them and let them develop into their own lines. Eberle probably has the best two way game of the three big rookies.
Horcroff - I am not a fan of our glass captain. He is respectable in most of his numbers (yes we wish they could all be higher, but how much of that has to do with his contract). So we let him win faceoffs and sit back. He does have a good hockey mind and for most this season was in the right spots to finish off plays. Eberle is great at starting them - and most often finishes them himself, but having a player who can win the face off and then move into a position of hinderance to the other team is a bonus. His numbers dipped a little this year, and I would like to seem them back to where they were two+ seasons ago. He likes playing with this younger team, and I think the youth will catch onto him and revitalize our Captains numbers.
Hartikainen - Our answer to Penner. Very similar in body size, but lacks (so far) in point production. But the man has heart, and drive, and desire... things Penner rarely showed. So what if Hartikainen does not end up being an Oiler top scorer. We do not need him to be, what he has done every game since being called up is exactly what we ned of him. Drive the net, stand infront of the net, ensue chaos. He has the ability to give Eberle to do what he does best, and will be there to whack it on home. Horcroff can catch the larger bounces and even be a cycle through. With this body infront of most goaltenders Hartikainen is bound to pick up 30+ points.
Summary: Yes as of now this line isn't ideal - its counting to much on the players being in the right spots at the right time (and their abilities as to make these happen). If Horcroff can work on his toughness (he is going to be in the lane and pushed a bit... he needs to be able to push back) and both Eberle and Hartikainen can get stronger on their feet then this line will have most of what it needs. Both Hartikainena and Horcroff will cause mayhem in the lane and on the crease ensuring Eberle to have room to take the shots he likes. So what if he doesn't finish, he will have two line mates in ideal spots to do it for him.
Third Line:
Pajaarvi - Of the big three Oiler rookies he may not be the most talked about, but he is by far the most consistant. He plays the same game every game, fast, takes the body, battles for the puck and shoots a lot. It hasn't always translated into points for him (yet) but he is doing everything right. He is currently a little lanky for his frame, but he is still young and could fill out. If not he is still playing very well so its no big loss. Unlike the other two (Hall and Eberle) Pajaarvi doesn't make things happen, he just takes it up midstream and finishes the play. And as with Eberle and Hall, Pajaarvi will do best with a line his own.
Landers - This one is a gray zone, as we have no indication on how he will translate to an NHL game. His numbers were impressive in the juniors (until the team around him fell apart) and he has also put up good numbers in europe. Not to mention he is one of the larger Oiler centers int he system. If he were to make it to the NHL next year, for his development its best to keep him on the third line, and have him center players from his own country. Let the three talk to each other in Swedish - they all have confidence and are friends with each other. With luck that will translate into a productive third line center. And with who his wingers are, if he takes back and plays more defensively I am okay with that (would prefer it as we will need a defensive center if Landers comes - which probably means Cogs goes)
Omark - I was excited when the Oilers drafted him, I was disappointed when he stayed in europe. I was disappointed when he didn't make the team and played in the AHL. But I have come to terms with all of those. Omark is a great player, and he makes everyone around him better. He may not ever be a high goal scorer, but he stands a good chance at one day being the league leader in assists. The man is impossible to push the puck (man teams have been using two players to counter him) and what is lacking now will come with more experience at the NHL level. Add to him the almost twin like symbiosis he has with Pajaarvi and the Oilers couldn't have a better third line.
Summary: Having an all international line is never bad, and its a plus that they all speak the same language which will help in all there of their developments. The big question for this line is its defensive play. Pajaarvi and Omark have both had some pretty big turn over and mid ice blunders, the hope is that is just getting used to a new game (NHL obviously being at a different level then what they are used to) and adding a large center who speaks their language so the line as a whole can communicate fluidly will help that development in large strides.
Fourth Line:
This is the line that is most likely to be done by comity and call ups. Should the oilers resign Jones this is where I believe he should stay. Its not a dog house of any sorts. The man has been great for the Oilers and it appears that who ever he plays with is energized by him. Beyond that the forth line would be a great place for trial call ups and see what they have in depth and how that translates to NHL. A good example would be centers, we have already seen what VandeVelde and O'Marra can do, but what of Martindale and Kytnar (either may surprise) or if the Oilers draft a center as many expect (but I pray against). As for the remaining wing position, resign MacIntyre and dress him for a few, have a call up play here or there other wise.
Defence:
Many people say this is where the Oilers are the weakest. I disagree.... We are weak here for now, However there are a lot of prospects in the system who could be huge for us later on in a year or two (the knowing fact that defenders do usually take longer to develop). Yes we do have holes in our defence and will eventually need to adress them but stay the course and develop through prospects and drafts I think is best. IE: Larsson - we need a player like that in our eventual roster. If players like Bigos or Motin or Teubert pan out then our depth on defence is no longer question and is a luxury. If not we have enough to easily build upon and shore up with cheap FAs in a year or so.
Realistically if we were to run:
Whitney - Petry
Smid - Foster
Peckham - Larsson
I doubt many people would complain. There is the potential for offensive output and defensive consistency in this group.
Goaltending:
If we were to do any major moves, trades, ufa signings over this summer. This is the area we need to adress. We do not have a number one goal tender. Dubnyk may be one in years to come, but if we keep throwing him to the wolves that will never happen. A legitimate starter to take the brunt of the work load, and Dubnyk getting 25 ish starts would be best. Realistically, this is what is keeping the Oilers in 30th, and with our depth of forwards there is no reason the Oilers shouldn't be a bubble team next year.
So thats my opinion on what the roster should look like next year. As to where other players went you may ask. See my next blog in the few days where I will touch on the moves that will get the space for this to happen (and add further depth to our system)
So until next time; Everyone has an opinion... this is just mine!
No this won't be about the Oiler games towards the end of the season... because they just don't matter. I will watch; I will cheer; and I will be a general nuisance to those who watch along side me at my place of work... but we are a lock for last place and a guarantee top two pick that will help bolster our team next year - cool. So instead of doing this as a preview or review of games coming or past, I figured it would be more interesting to explain my thoughts on what the Oilers roster may (and should in my opinion) look like next year.
Top Line:
Hemsky - He will play next year, and he will most likely stay healthy for it all. He says he wants to stay in Edmonton, and he has had all those meetings with Tambs and Katz. If the Oilers were going to trade them they would have by now (unless there is a HUGE return for him over this summer). The guy is a natural playmaker, dangler and has a great shot. I think he will play less contact then he has (taking the body and being in the mix were the scenarios in which he has been injured). I would really like to see him keep at his point per game that he has established (and is capable of) for next year. I would imagine him playing 75+ games next year.
Hall - Whats not to like about the guy. I can go into his resume, but there is no point. We all know what he is. And he will make everyone who works the line with him better for it. What I like the most about him though is how well he did at center. Don't quote me as saying he should play center, I am not saying that. What I am saying is that with him on the top line he can help pull some center duty. Increasing the strength as a whole.
Gagner - This one may get me shot... or at the very least smacked. Is Gagner a #1 center on most NHL teams. No. He is a very capable #2 and an extremely reliable #3. However, the Oilers are not most NHL teams. They have probably the greatest pool of depth in their forwards of any team, and most of it is wingers. Gagner will work on his face offs, maintain his smallish frame and will probably try to figure a way that will make him harder to knock of the puck. I believe that given the right wingers, his numbers will climb and everyone will look at that way. Individually he isn't the #1 we are clambering for, but put him between Hall and Hemsky I think they will make him a good #1.
Summary: With both Gagner and Hall able to take faces offs - and if both can get it to a respectable high forty for next season (and even higher in seasons after - baby steps after all). The line has the affordability to get a way without the all star #1 center that most fans expect, want or demand through trade or draft. Each player has their strengths, so lets use them as such. Add in Hemsky for play making (let the puck rotate through him, and keep him at the point so he isn't fighting along the boards - let the much sturdier Gagner and Hall do that for him) and I think this is a legitimate top line in the NHL that will get more respect as the communication and cohesiveness grows between them.
Second Line:
Eberle - Minus his mid season injury (that seemed very Brule-esque) Eberle has been super human. The amount of physical abuse he has taken into the boards and around the net, and the fact he gets up finishes his shift and keeps going is just astounding... and probably quite frustrating for other teams. Add to him the fact that he can stick handle, shoot and is difficult to push of the puck must make him infuriating to other teams. Much like Hall he makes everyone on his line better and while the two are magic together I believe its best for the organization as a whole to divide them and let them develop into their own lines. Eberle probably has the best two way game of the three big rookies.
Horcroff - I am not a fan of our glass captain. He is respectable in most of his numbers (yes we wish they could all be higher, but how much of that has to do with his contract). So we let him win faceoffs and sit back. He does have a good hockey mind and for most this season was in the right spots to finish off plays. Eberle is great at starting them - and most often finishes them himself, but having a player who can win the face off and then move into a position of hinderance to the other team is a bonus. His numbers dipped a little this year, and I would like to seem them back to where they were two+ seasons ago. He likes playing with this younger team, and I think the youth will catch onto him and revitalize our Captains numbers.
Hartikainen - Our answer to Penner. Very similar in body size, but lacks (so far) in point production. But the man has heart, and drive, and desire... things Penner rarely showed. So what if Hartikainen does not end up being an Oiler top scorer. We do not need him to be, what he has done every game since being called up is exactly what we ned of him. Drive the net, stand infront of the net, ensue chaos. He has the ability to give Eberle to do what he does best, and will be there to whack it on home. Horcroff can catch the larger bounces and even be a cycle through. With this body infront of most goaltenders Hartikainen is bound to pick up 30+ points.
Summary: Yes as of now this line isn't ideal - its counting to much on the players being in the right spots at the right time (and their abilities as to make these happen). If Horcroff can work on his toughness (he is going to be in the lane and pushed a bit... he needs to be able to push back) and both Eberle and Hartikainen can get stronger on their feet then this line will have most of what it needs. Both Hartikainena and Horcroff will cause mayhem in the lane and on the crease ensuring Eberle to have room to take the shots he likes. So what if he doesn't finish, he will have two line mates in ideal spots to do it for him.
Third Line:
Pajaarvi - Of the big three Oiler rookies he may not be the most talked about, but he is by far the most consistant. He plays the same game every game, fast, takes the body, battles for the puck and shoots a lot. It hasn't always translated into points for him (yet) but he is doing everything right. He is currently a little lanky for his frame, but he is still young and could fill out. If not he is still playing very well so its no big loss. Unlike the other two (Hall and Eberle) Pajaarvi doesn't make things happen, he just takes it up midstream and finishes the play. And as with Eberle and Hall, Pajaarvi will do best with a line his own.
Landers - This one is a gray zone, as we have no indication on how he will translate to an NHL game. His numbers were impressive in the juniors (until the team around him fell apart) and he has also put up good numbers in europe. Not to mention he is one of the larger Oiler centers int he system. If he were to make it to the NHL next year, for his development its best to keep him on the third line, and have him center players from his own country. Let the three talk to each other in Swedish - they all have confidence and are friends with each other. With luck that will translate into a productive third line center. And with who his wingers are, if he takes back and plays more defensively I am okay with that (would prefer it as we will need a defensive center if Landers comes - which probably means Cogs goes)
Omark - I was excited when the Oilers drafted him, I was disappointed when he stayed in europe. I was disappointed when he didn't make the team and played in the AHL. But I have come to terms with all of those. Omark is a great player, and he makes everyone around him better. He may not ever be a high goal scorer, but he stands a good chance at one day being the league leader in assists. The man is impossible to push the puck (man teams have been using two players to counter him) and what is lacking now will come with more experience at the NHL level. Add to him the almost twin like symbiosis he has with Pajaarvi and the Oilers couldn't have a better third line.
Summary: Having an all international line is never bad, and its a plus that they all speak the same language which will help in all there of their developments. The big question for this line is its defensive play. Pajaarvi and Omark have both had some pretty big turn over and mid ice blunders, the hope is that is just getting used to a new game (NHL obviously being at a different level then what they are used to) and adding a large center who speaks their language so the line as a whole can communicate fluidly will help that development in large strides.
Fourth Line:
This is the line that is most likely to be done by comity and call ups. Should the oilers resign Jones this is where I believe he should stay. Its not a dog house of any sorts. The man has been great for the Oilers and it appears that who ever he plays with is energized by him. Beyond that the forth line would be a great place for trial call ups and see what they have in depth and how that translates to NHL. A good example would be centers, we have already seen what VandeVelde and O'Marra can do, but what of Martindale and Kytnar (either may surprise) or if the Oilers draft a center as many expect (but I pray against). As for the remaining wing position, resign MacIntyre and dress him for a few, have a call up play here or there other wise.
Defence:
Many people say this is where the Oilers are the weakest. I disagree.... We are weak here for now, However there are a lot of prospects in the system who could be huge for us later on in a year or two (the knowing fact that defenders do usually take longer to develop). Yes we do have holes in our defence and will eventually need to adress them but stay the course and develop through prospects and drafts I think is best. IE: Larsson - we need a player like that in our eventual roster. If players like Bigos or Motin or Teubert pan out then our depth on defence is no longer question and is a luxury. If not we have enough to easily build upon and shore up with cheap FAs in a year or so.
Realistically if we were to run:
Whitney - Petry
Smid - Foster
Peckham - Larsson
I doubt many people would complain. There is the potential for offensive output and defensive consistency in this group.
Goaltending:
If we were to do any major moves, trades, ufa signings over this summer. This is the area we need to adress. We do not have a number one goal tender. Dubnyk may be one in years to come, but if we keep throwing him to the wolves that will never happen. A legitimate starter to take the brunt of the work load, and Dubnyk getting 25 ish starts would be best. Realistically, this is what is keeping the Oilers in 30th, and with our depth of forwards there is no reason the Oilers shouldn't be a bubble team next year.
So thats my opinion on what the roster should look like next year. As to where other players went you may ask. See my next blog in the few days where I will touch on the moves that will get the space for this to happen (and add further depth to our system)
So until next time; Everyone has an opinion... this is just mine!