Behavior Based Assessment in Hockey
Posted 10:22 PM ET | Comments 0
I argue that the best predictor of someone's future performance is their behavior (rather than the traditional criteria such as scoring, +/- ratings, "hockey IQ" and/or "team fit"
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Rating the frequency of key/causal/critical behavior... is as much as 7 times more predictive than using traditional methods and/or criteria.
For purposes of this blog, I will identify only two behaviors (out of the 10 that I currently track on my favorite team).
The first example is a "behavior" that is more important for assessing the value of a player who will be on the ice when puck possession is especially critical. For example when a team has pulled their goal tender.
This behavior is roughly understood as "The frequency (how many times out of 10)with which the player... as opportunities present... positions himself intelligently and powerfully either "over" the puck and/or "between" the puck and the opposing player(s)."
Highly rated players would be Datsyuk and Iginla.
Anyone with minimum of training can observe and report on a specific "behavior". It's either there or it is not.
A second "behavior" while one of my key 10 is probably more important for assessing willingness to cooperate and adapt.
Here I note the frequency with which the player shows an obvious increase or decrease in effort and/or resolve immediately following an incident of failure.
Highly rated players are Ovechkin and Giordano.
It's simple, inexpensive and unquestionably proven... so why is there not a metric of behavioral criteria for every NHL team?
.Rating the frequency of key/causal/critical behavior... is as much as 7 times more predictive than using traditional methods and/or criteria.
For purposes of this blog, I will identify only two behaviors (out of the 10 that I currently track on my favorite team).
The first example is a "behavior" that is more important for assessing the value of a player who will be on the ice when puck possession is especially critical. For example when a team has pulled their goal tender.
This behavior is roughly understood as "The frequency (how many times out of 10)with which the player... as opportunities present... positions himself intelligently and powerfully either "over" the puck and/or "between" the puck and the opposing player(s)."
Highly rated players would be Datsyuk and Iginla.
Anyone with minimum of training can observe and report on a specific "behavior". It's either there or it is not.
A second "behavior" while one of my key 10 is probably more important for assessing willingness to cooperate and adapt.
Here I note the frequency with which the player shows an obvious increase or decrease in effort and/or resolve immediately following an incident of failure.
Highly rated players are Ovechkin and Giordano.
It's simple, inexpensive and unquestionably proven... so why is there not a metric of behavioral criteria for every NHL team?