"Blip on the Nielsen radar"
Kirksville, MO • United States • 30 Years Old • Male
jason.hunsicker
Flyers in the sweet spot
Posted 8:02 PM ET | Comments 0
It's a familiar refrain at hockey games. Fans get restless. They want action. For a lot of them, action equals shots, therefore, that familiar refrain.
"SHOOT!"
A simple - and logical - school of thought would be that the more you shoot, the more chances you have to score, the better chances you have to win the game. Interestingly, with the Philadelphia Flyers, at least as far as last year goes, that wasn't the case.
In taking a look at shots on goal, I made a few assumptions. First, the optimal number of total shots in a game is about 30. That's one every two minutes for the duration of a hockey game, 10 per period, etc. Good teams should be able to hit that number. The Flyers, who were more than good while winning 47 games last season, averaged 31.8 shots on goal for the regular season. So, we're in the ballpark by guessing 30.
To come to that average, most of your totals need to be near that mark, so let's assume 26-34 shots on goal is a "sweet spot" figure. Arbitrary? Partly, but I figure if you're getting 35 or more shots per game, that's about 12 per period, and a signal you controlled the puck a lot in the other team's zone. When you're getting 25 or less per game, or 8 per period, that's a significant difference - a sign you were doing a lot of chasing rather than anything else.
Last season, the Flyers missed the low end of my "sweet spot" 12 times. They were 6-6 in those games.
They exceeded the "sweet spot" 24 times, and were an unimpressive 10-14 in those games. The split was better at home (8-6) versus the road (2-8), but neither saw the results you'd expect when getting that much rubber on net. And in many of those instances where the Flyers lost, they did so by 1-0 or 2-1 scores. Hardly an offensive onslaught.
More shots do not necessarily equate to more/better scoring chances. Sometimes, one quality chance is worth three or four times down the ice where you're just throwing the puck at the goalie and praying for a miracle.
Interestingly, the Flyers won 31 of the 46 games, or a winning percentage of .674, in which their shot total was in the "sweet spot."
This year? Two games, two wins, two shot totals of 29. "Sweet spot."
Maybe "SHOOT!" isn't necessarily the best suggestion every time after all.
"SHOOT!"
A simple - and logical - school of thought would be that the more you shoot, the more chances you have to score, the better chances you have to win the game. Interestingly, with the Philadelphia Flyers, at least as far as last year goes, that wasn't the case.
In taking a look at shots on goal, I made a few assumptions. First, the optimal number of total shots in a game is about 30. That's one every two minutes for the duration of a hockey game, 10 per period, etc. Good teams should be able to hit that number. The Flyers, who were more than good while winning 47 games last season, averaged 31.8 shots on goal for the regular season. So, we're in the ballpark by guessing 30.
To come to that average, most of your totals need to be near that mark, so let's assume 26-34 shots on goal is a "sweet spot" figure. Arbitrary? Partly, but I figure if you're getting 35 or more shots per game, that's about 12 per period, and a signal you controlled the puck a lot in the other team's zone. When you're getting 25 or less per game, or 8 per period, that's a significant difference - a sign you were doing a lot of chasing rather than anything else.
Last season, the Flyers missed the low end of my "sweet spot" 12 times. They were 6-6 in those games.
They exceeded the "sweet spot" 24 times, and were an unimpressive 10-14 in those games. The split was better at home (8-6) versus the road (2-8), but neither saw the results you'd expect when getting that much rubber on net. And in many of those instances where the Flyers lost, they did so by 1-0 or 2-1 scores. Hardly an offensive onslaught.
More shots do not necessarily equate to more/better scoring chances. Sometimes, one quality chance is worth three or four times down the ice where you're just throwing the puck at the goalie and praying for a miracle.
Interestingly, the Flyers won 31 of the 46 games, or a winning percentage of .674, in which their shot total was in the "sweet spot."
This year? Two games, two wins, two shot totals of 29. "Sweet spot."
Maybe "SHOOT!" isn't necessarily the best suggestion every time after all.