What do the Oilers need to do to take the next step?
Posted 10:44 AM ET | Comments 1
What do the Oilers need to take the next step? Firstly, I'm fairly convinced that the job will not be done entirely by prospects currently in the oilers system. A signing or trade must be done. We can talk about what's needed for Defense and Goaltending, but I believe it's altogether clear: We need high-end, minute eating first pairing guys (or at least one) and a starting goaltender. There may be no cheap way to go about this.
Now, my bias is that I hate goalies. They're too fickle, and I'd rather add a goaltender that can have a hot stretch as a finishing touch than pay a huge price to "build out from the net". Building out from the net strikes me like building a bullpen around a hot-shot closer. You may get Rivera, you're probably going to get B.J. Ryan. Luckily, if Lowe's fabled acquisition of Dwayne Roloson has any bearing on MacT's attitude, the Oilers brass may be in line with that concept - especially after MacT had his eyes opened to the difficulty of acquiring a good goaltender.
As for defense, it's fun to speculate about what dman we need and what the cost is, but it's pretty clear that it needs to be a major move. Major moves are boring, and everyone always talks about them, so I want to talk about tinkering with the forwards.
From my diagnosis, the Oilers have collected a good crop of forwards, not simply through drafting but also through a couple of solid moves and signings. As I see it, it's unclear that Acton, Eager, Jones, Hemsky, or Smyth have much of a future with the Oil, and as much as it pains me Arcobello may need to be added to the list. He's good a decent stride, has good hands and works hard in all three zones but with that I've also just described Gagner. Small smart centres can work in tandem (see Detroit) but to run Nuge-Gagner-Arco-Gordon down the middle may not be a long term solution. I think Arco has a bright future, but not here. Let's put him aside for a moment.
Here's how we might organize the remaining forwards:
A.
Hall-Gagner-XXXXX
XXXXX-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
Perron-Gordon-Yakupov
Joensuu-XXXXX-Pitlick
Advantages to A:
-The players we can envision are complimentary players
-Since Yakupov is lining up on a 3rd line of sorts, it acknowledges the possibilty that he can be traded.
-The bottom 6 looks pretty swell, if a little slight.
Disadvantages to A:
-Yakupov would need to develop into a stronger possession/defensive player to excel here.
- In acquiring these complimentary players, we are courting that elusive quality of "chemistry"
- It seems crazy to have neither Yakupov nor Eberle on the top line
Analysis:
I think that this core is a couple of complimentary players away from something great. At the time of the Troy Brouwer trade, people were trashing the Caps for giving up a 25th overall pick. Well, it's turned out to be a stroke of genius because Brouwer showed an ability to elevate his game when in the company of elite linemates. Of course, there are countless examples of this, with new ones cropping up every day. Look at Dwight King out in LA. Steve Downie has done great work both in TB and in Colorado. The thing that are best about the right complimentary players is that if they aren't producing, they can always go back to the 3rd line. In that sense, having complimentary players allows you to roll even lines ideally, and reconfigure as players go hot and cold. That's why Ebs and Yak are neither the 1st line RW (to start).
The other nice thing is that these players come reliatively cheap. It's not easy to bring in the right complimentary players, and we can only speculate whether Daniel Winnik or Daniel Paille would play better with Nuge and Ebs, but if you acquire these guys it doesn't come at the heavy cost that PWFs like Wayne Simmonds or Chris Stewart have, or even former diamonds in the rough like Hartnell or Malone.
Here's another option
B.
Hall-XXXXX-Yakupov
XXXXX-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
Perron-Gagner-XXXXXX
Joensuu-Gordon-Pitlick
Advantages to B:
- re-unites a successful pairing of Hall and Yakupov
- Utilizes both Yakupov and Eberle in roles with offensive potential
- Bottom 6 is still swell, if a little slight
Disadvantages to B:
-It's harder to acquire a guy that can play top 6 C than it is to acquire a 4C or a 2/3 winger.
- It seems crazy to have neither Yakupov nor Eberle on the top line
As with the first situation, we're creating a stable of top 9 forwards that can move up and down as needed. So we're not exactly dooming Gagner or Nugent-Hopkins to "2nd string" duties. On any given night, those two lines could play more than the Hall line.
Last year, Krueger utilized Horcoff's defensive acumen and faceoff ability, and his still relatively fleet feet, and left the offense up to the two cannonballs on the wing . Over that end of year stretch, the line looked really good to me. It had a defensive conscience and some major possession instincts, so re-creating that skillset is something worth exploring. Indeed, you might simply give Hall-Gordon-Yakupov a shot, as he has not looked utterly out of place during his overclocked duties in the top 6 this season.
I'll discuss the Nuge-Ebs pairing as well because it appears on both options. I think that Eberle's shooting and Nuge's playmaking are a no-brainer to keep together. The secret is to get someone to crash the net and create interference for them. In his prime Ryan Smyth could have been this player for them, and I had hopes that Hartikainen or Paajarvi could end up replicating that feeling. Alas, it was not to be. So how do we fill this hole without needing to give up Lander's potential to get Lucic?
JVR and Ladd were all but written high selections off but both flourished in this role with their new teams. That being said, we're not likely to get gifted a player like Ladd, and like it or lump it, our equivalent to Luke Schenn (the price the Leafs payed for JVR) is likely a guy like Klefbom.
I'd look at a guy like Nikolai Kulemin as he could fit in with the cerebral quality of that line. The oft-maligned Leafs winger may never score 30 goals again but he reads the game well enough to stay in the thick of things. He won't crash with aplomb though.
Another option could be Justin Abdelkader. Without a point, and written off at the 23 game mark of last year, an empty netter against our Edmonton Oilers got him going and he potted 10 goals and 13 points over the last 25. He's played spot duty up and down the responsible Red Wings lineup, but this would be an expanded role for him. He's not terribly creative? Who cares, we've got 5 or 6 of the most creative forwards in the game. He's certainly prepared to go to the dirty areas on the ice. It's not clear whether we'd get the next Bryan Bickell out of him, but it would be a very cheap experiment. At the very least, he's a Ryan Jones that's more committed to defense.
Now, my bias is that I hate goalies. They're too fickle, and I'd rather add a goaltender that can have a hot stretch as a finishing touch than pay a huge price to "build out from the net". Building out from the net strikes me like building a bullpen around a hot-shot closer. You may get Rivera, you're probably going to get B.J. Ryan. Luckily, if Lowe's fabled acquisition of Dwayne Roloson has any bearing on MacT's attitude, the Oilers brass may be in line with that concept - especially after MacT had his eyes opened to the difficulty of acquiring a good goaltender.
As for defense, it's fun to speculate about what dman we need and what the cost is, but it's pretty clear that it needs to be a major move. Major moves are boring, and everyone always talks about them, so I want to talk about tinkering with the forwards.
From my diagnosis, the Oilers have collected a good crop of forwards, not simply through drafting but also through a couple of solid moves and signings. As I see it, it's unclear that Acton, Eager, Jones, Hemsky, or Smyth have much of a future with the Oil, and as much as it pains me Arcobello may need to be added to the list. He's good a decent stride, has good hands and works hard in all three zones but with that I've also just described Gagner. Small smart centres can work in tandem (see Detroit) but to run Nuge-Gagner-Arco-Gordon down the middle may not be a long term solution. I think Arco has a bright future, but not here. Let's put him aside for a moment.
Here's how we might organize the remaining forwards:
A.
Hall-Gagner-XXXXX
XXXXX-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
Perron-Gordon-Yakupov
Joensuu-XXXXX-Pitlick
Advantages to A:
-The players we can envision are complimentary players
-Since Yakupov is lining up on a 3rd line of sorts, it acknowledges the possibilty that he can be traded.
-The bottom 6 looks pretty swell, if a little slight.
Disadvantages to A:
-Yakupov would need to develop into a stronger possession/defensive player to excel here.
- In acquiring these complimentary players, we are courting that elusive quality of "chemistry"
- It seems crazy to have neither Yakupov nor Eberle on the top line
Analysis:
I think that this core is a couple of complimentary players away from something great. At the time of the Troy Brouwer trade, people were trashing the Caps for giving up a 25th overall pick. Well, it's turned out to be a stroke of genius because Brouwer showed an ability to elevate his game when in the company of elite linemates. Of course, there are countless examples of this, with new ones cropping up every day. Look at Dwight King out in LA. Steve Downie has done great work both in TB and in Colorado. The thing that are best about the right complimentary players is that if they aren't producing, they can always go back to the 3rd line. In that sense, having complimentary players allows you to roll even lines ideally, and reconfigure as players go hot and cold. That's why Ebs and Yak are neither the 1st line RW (to start).
The other nice thing is that these players come reliatively cheap. It's not easy to bring in the right complimentary players, and we can only speculate whether Daniel Winnik or Daniel Paille would play better with Nuge and Ebs, but if you acquire these guys it doesn't come at the heavy cost that PWFs like Wayne Simmonds or Chris Stewart have, or even former diamonds in the rough like Hartnell or Malone.
Here's another option
B.
Hall-XXXXX-Yakupov
XXXXX-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
Perron-Gagner-XXXXXX
Joensuu-Gordon-Pitlick
Advantages to B:
- re-unites a successful pairing of Hall and Yakupov
- Utilizes both Yakupov and Eberle in roles with offensive potential
- Bottom 6 is still swell, if a little slight
Disadvantages to B:
-It's harder to acquire a guy that can play top 6 C than it is to acquire a 4C or a 2/3 winger.
- It seems crazy to have neither Yakupov nor Eberle on the top line
As with the first situation, we're creating a stable of top 9 forwards that can move up and down as needed. So we're not exactly dooming Gagner or Nugent-Hopkins to "2nd string" duties. On any given night, those two lines could play more than the Hall line.
Last year, Krueger utilized Horcoff's defensive acumen and faceoff ability, and his still relatively fleet feet, and left the offense up to the two cannonballs on the wing . Over that end of year stretch, the line looked really good to me. It had a defensive conscience and some major possession instincts, so re-creating that skillset is something worth exploring. Indeed, you might simply give Hall-Gordon-Yakupov a shot, as he has not looked utterly out of place during his overclocked duties in the top 6 this season.
I'll discuss the Nuge-Ebs pairing as well because it appears on both options. I think that Eberle's shooting and Nuge's playmaking are a no-brainer to keep together. The secret is to get someone to crash the net and create interference for them. In his prime Ryan Smyth could have been this player for them, and I had hopes that Hartikainen or Paajarvi could end up replicating that feeling. Alas, it was not to be. So how do we fill this hole without needing to give up Lander's potential to get Lucic?
JVR and Ladd were all but written high selections off but both flourished in this role with their new teams. That being said, we're not likely to get gifted a player like Ladd, and like it or lump it, our equivalent to Luke Schenn (the price the Leafs payed for JVR) is likely a guy like Klefbom.
I'd look at a guy like Nikolai Kulemin as he could fit in with the cerebral quality of that line. The oft-maligned Leafs winger may never score 30 goals again but he reads the game well enough to stay in the thick of things. He won't crash with aplomb though.
Another option could be Justin Abdelkader. Without a point, and written off at the 23 game mark of last year, an empty netter against our Edmonton Oilers got him going and he potted 10 goals and 13 points over the last 25. He's played spot duty up and down the responsible Red Wings lineup, but this would be an expanded role for him. He's not terribly creative? Who cares, we've got 5 or 6 of the most creative forwards in the game. He's certainly prepared to go to the dirty areas on the ice. It's not clear whether we'd get the next Bryan Bickell out of him, but it would be a very cheap experiment. At the very least, he's a Ryan Jones that's more committed to defense.
BRING BACK JANI RITA