2016 Offseason
Posted 1:12 PM ET | Comments 3
2015-16 was supposed to be a rebuilding season. We weren't suppose to be good enough yet. Sure the Flyers were expected to be in the picture at least, but few thought they would actually make it in. Instead the expectation was they would fall 5 points or so shy of the last wildcard spot, and end up picking somewhere in the 7-10 range. We had prepared ourselves for this outcome. We trusted in Ron Hextalls vision, and were willing to be patient.
So when the Flyers beat the Penguins in their 81st game to clinch the last wildcard spot, Flyers fans everywhere silently rejoiced, Bonus Hockey... Now anything was possible. The Washington Capitals on the other hand broke records on their way to winning the presidents trophy. A team with almost no weakness, lead by a hungry Alexander Ovechkin was going to be a tall order for a team that wasn't even suppose to be here...
And in the end it was, the Flyers were beaten in 6 games and were out scored 14-6. It didn't help that the Flyers had to start the playoffs without their best defenseman not named Gostisbehere. Delzotto had reinvented himself as an all situations defenseman who could be trusted with the tough minutes, and prior to his injury formed a dynamic pairing with the young phenom defenseman NAMED Gostisbehere. It also didn't help that we lost Sean Couturier to injury in the opening period of game 2, or that both Giroux and Gostisbehere were playing through injuries that would require them to have matching hip surgeries in the offseason. But all teams deal with injury and it is no excuse in todays NHL. The Capitals were a better team and they won. But this blog is not about a team that played over their head all season, ending in a surprise trip to the playoffs. No this blog is about next season, and in my opinion a team that will not have to wait until the 81st game to make the playoffs. This blog is about the future, and it is bright my friends!
Let look take a look at the locks to return.
Claude Giroux 6y/8.275M 22g/67p
Jakub Voracek 8y/8.25m 11g/55p
Sean Couturier 6y/4.333m 11g/39p
Wayne Simmonds 3y/3.975m 32g/60p
Micheal Raffl 3y/2.35m 13g/31p
Scott Laughton 1y/.863m 7g/21p
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 1y/.712m 7g/14p
Chris Vandervelde 1y/.712m 2g/14p
Micheal Del Zotto 1y/3.875m 4g/13p
Shayne Gostisbehere 1y/.925m 17g/46p
Steve Mason 1y/4.1m 23w/.918sv%
Micheal Neuvirth 1y/1.625m 18w/.924sv%
I think most would agree that these 12 players will most likely be on the team next season given their contracts and defined roles withing the organization and Dave Haxtols system. So now we can look at players that will most likely be resigned.
Brayden Schenn RFA 26g/59p
Nick Cousins RFA 6g/10p
Ryan White UFA 11g/16p
Radko Gudas RFA 5g/14p
That puts us at 16 players it would be hard not to see on the roster next season. Before we move on lets give them contracts. You may agree or disagree with the money or term but these are just my guesses.
Brayden Schenn 4y/4.5m
Nick Cousins 2y/1m
Ryan White 2y/1m
Radko Gudas 3y/3.2m
Schenns contract is the hardest to predict, he had a heck of a season and was a wreaking ball in the Washington series but I doubt Hextall gives him more than 5 million for one good season. When Gudas toes the line, he is a reliable defensive defenseman with a good first pass and the ability to wear down opponents with his merciless hitting. When he crosses it, it can be bad for both sides. He is not in Matt Cooke or Raffi Torres territory but if he can't be reined in he will be. 2-3 years at 3 million sounds reasonable. Cousins and White get the same contract for different reasons. With Cousins its a show me contract. For White it's stability.
UFAs or RFAs that may or may not be back.
Sam Gagner UFA 8g/16p
Jordon Weal RFA 0g/0p
Yeveni Medvedev UFA 4g/13p
Brandon Manning RFA 1g/7p
Manning and Weal will most likely receive qualifying offer and return to the organization, although Manning has a better shot at staying with the big club. Ganger and Medvedev will most likely not return. However if either were willing to come back on one year deals under .925m then I could see resigning them. Worst case you waive them and put them with the Phantoms at no cost.
Now lets look at some of the guys that are under contract for next season but could be either traded or bought out. Probably more than half of these guys will be back but its more about the potential a trade or buyout. Also for this I will assume Lecavalier will honer his handshake agreement to retire, clearing his 2.25m cap hit for retained salary.
R.J. Umberger 1y/4.6m 2g/11p
Matt Read 2y/3.625m 11g/26p
Mark Streit 1y/5.25m 6g/23p
Andrew MacDonald 4y/5m 1g/8p
Nick Schultz 1y/2.25m 1g/10p
Umberger almost certainly will be bought out, the only reason he would be kept would be if Hextall decided they could afford to pay him to sit on the bench as oppose to having that extra year of 1.5m if he were bought out, but to me he would be just blocking the way for younger players to get a look. Buy him out, save 3 million this season and be done with it.
If Matt Read had scored 4 more goals I doubt people would be so down on him but his play is far away from his rookie season right now. I think he is still a top 9 forward and still provided value but at the same time he could most likely be replaced by younger and cheaper options, If someone offered a 2nd I would take it but other than that keep him and let him fight wtih the likes of Konecny for a spot.
Mark Streit is another player who still has value but if a team came with an offer of a pair of 2nds I would take it a heart beat. Let him come to camp, if he is beaten out by the likes of Provorov then trade him.
Same goes for Schultz, bring him to camp and if he is better than Morin than you keep him. I know we all want to get younger but the kids will have to earn it by being better than these guys. To me it comes down to Read VS Konecny, Streit VS Provorov and Schultz VS Morin at camp, losers get traded or demoted.
Last but not least we have Andy Macdonald. I will start by saying that if he was being paid $1 million a season there would be no problem. He is a capable 5-6 that could fill in the 3-4 if needed. But he is not being paid like a 5-6, no he is being paid like a 1-2 and that is the problem. Probably the biggest problem the Flyers have right now and that pains me to say as a fellow Cape Bretoner. I want to like him so badly, and I'm also sure he is a great guy(we all are). But Andy Macdonalds contract is bad and basically unmovable. Buying him out would be even harder to swallow than keeping him however. I don't think any of us could bear seeing his name on the payroll for 8 more years! Best case scenario is he plays better this season and maybe we can eat half his salary at the end of the season and trade him back to the Islanders or something. 3 years at $2.5 million might be easier to swallow.
So lets put it all together and project next seasons roster. For this we will set the cap at $74 million.
Jakub Voracek(8.25m) Claude Giroux(8.275m) Wayne Simmonds(3.975m)
Micheal Raffl(2.35m) Sean Couturier(4.333m) Brayden Schenn(4.5m)
Matt Read(3.625m) Scott Laughton(.833m) Travis Konecny(.925m)
Chris Vandervelde(.712m) P.E. Bellemare(.712m) Ryan White(1m)
Nick Cousins(1m)
Micheal Del Zotto(3.875m) Shayne Gostisbehere(.925m)
Nick Schultz(2.25m) Mark Streit(5.25m)
Ivan Provorov(.925m) Radko Gudas(3.2m)
Brandon Manning(.65m)
Steve Mason(4.1m)
Micheal Neuvirth(1.625m)
Buyout - R.J. Umberger(1.6m)
Buried - Andrew Macdonald(4.075m)
Total $68.965m
Cap Space $5.035m
Like I said If Provorov, Morin or Konecny do beat out Streit, Schults or Read than we could most likely trade any of the latter and save the difference. And of course I am sure we will most likely sign a guy or two in the offseason. There is also the chance Hextall goes big game hunting because with 5 million in space now than you can stash a guy in the minors and sign someone for 6 million to take his spot without trading anyone. Milan Lucic is really the only guy I would consider, as despite a move away from face punching, I think his Power and goal scoring was an element that this seasons flyers team was missing, and besides he was pretty much born to were the orange and black.
Top 5 prospects who will be competing for NHL jobs THIS season.
1. D Ivan Provorov 19 62gp21g73p+64 ETA Beginning 2016-17 Projected: Top Pair D
2. RW Travis Konecny 19 60gp30g101p+34 ETA Beginning 2016-17 Projected: Top 6 F
3. D Sam Morin 21 76gp4g19p-5 ETA Middle 2016-17 Projected: Top 4 D
4. LW Taylor Leier 22 71gp20g49p+2 ETA Middle 2016-17 Projected: Bottom 6 F
5. G Anthony Stolarz 22 47gp21w.916sv%0SO ETA Middle 2016-17 Projected: Backup
Top 5 prospects who will be competing for NHL jobs NEXT season.
1. D Travis Sainheim 20 52gp15g68p+15 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Top pair D
2. D Robert Hagg 21 65gp5g11p-11 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Top 6 D
3. RW Nicolas Aube Kubel 20 61gp38g84p+38 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Bottom 6 F
4. C Radel Fazleev 20 59gp19g71p+17 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Bottom 6 F
5. LW Oscar Lindblom 20 48gp8g25p+3 Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Top 9 F
Honorable mentions: D Philippe Myers(63gp17g45p+52) ETA 2018-19, G Alex Lyon(31gp19w.936sv%5SO) ETA 2018-19
Now Finally lets take a quick look at the draft. Guessing who will be available at 18 is a tough thing to do so I won't try(Max Jones!). Instead I will propose a scenario where the flyers trade up with Edmonton and pick 4th.
To Phi
4th overall, Andrew Ference(1y/3.25m)
To Edm
18th overall, Sam Morin, Nicholas Abel Kubel, Micheal Neuvirth(1y/1.625m), Mark Streit(2m retained)(1y/3.25m)
With the 4th overall selection the Philadelphia Flyers are proud to select, from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, Pierre Luc(Jamie Benn) Dubios!
Feel free to comment and Thanks for reading!
So when the Flyers beat the Penguins in their 81st game to clinch the last wildcard spot, Flyers fans everywhere silently rejoiced, Bonus Hockey... Now anything was possible. The Washington Capitals on the other hand broke records on their way to winning the presidents trophy. A team with almost no weakness, lead by a hungry Alexander Ovechkin was going to be a tall order for a team that wasn't even suppose to be here...
And in the end it was, the Flyers were beaten in 6 games and were out scored 14-6. It didn't help that the Flyers had to start the playoffs without their best defenseman not named Gostisbehere. Delzotto had reinvented himself as an all situations defenseman who could be trusted with the tough minutes, and prior to his injury formed a dynamic pairing with the young phenom defenseman NAMED Gostisbehere. It also didn't help that we lost Sean Couturier to injury in the opening period of game 2, or that both Giroux and Gostisbehere were playing through injuries that would require them to have matching hip surgeries in the offseason. But all teams deal with injury and it is no excuse in todays NHL. The Capitals were a better team and they won. But this blog is not about a team that played over their head all season, ending in a surprise trip to the playoffs. No this blog is about next season, and in my opinion a team that will not have to wait until the 81st game to make the playoffs. This blog is about the future, and it is bright my friends!
Let look take a look at the locks to return.
Claude Giroux 6y/8.275M 22g/67p
Jakub Voracek 8y/8.25m 11g/55p
Sean Couturier 6y/4.333m 11g/39p
Wayne Simmonds 3y/3.975m 32g/60p
Micheal Raffl 3y/2.35m 13g/31p
Scott Laughton 1y/.863m 7g/21p
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 1y/.712m 7g/14p
Chris Vandervelde 1y/.712m 2g/14p
Micheal Del Zotto 1y/3.875m 4g/13p
Shayne Gostisbehere 1y/.925m 17g/46p
Steve Mason 1y/4.1m 23w/.918sv%
Micheal Neuvirth 1y/1.625m 18w/.924sv%
I think most would agree that these 12 players will most likely be on the team next season given their contracts and defined roles withing the organization and Dave Haxtols system. So now we can look at players that will most likely be resigned.
Brayden Schenn RFA 26g/59p
Nick Cousins RFA 6g/10p
Ryan White UFA 11g/16p
Radko Gudas RFA 5g/14p
That puts us at 16 players it would be hard not to see on the roster next season. Before we move on lets give them contracts. You may agree or disagree with the money or term but these are just my guesses.
Brayden Schenn 4y/4.5m
Nick Cousins 2y/1m
Ryan White 2y/1m
Radko Gudas 3y/3.2m
Schenns contract is the hardest to predict, he had a heck of a season and was a wreaking ball in the Washington series but I doubt Hextall gives him more than 5 million for one good season. When Gudas toes the line, he is a reliable defensive defenseman with a good first pass and the ability to wear down opponents with his merciless hitting. When he crosses it, it can be bad for both sides. He is not in Matt Cooke or Raffi Torres territory but if he can't be reined in he will be. 2-3 years at 3 million sounds reasonable. Cousins and White get the same contract for different reasons. With Cousins its a show me contract. For White it's stability.
UFAs or RFAs that may or may not be back.
Sam Gagner UFA 8g/16p
Jordon Weal RFA 0g/0p
Yeveni Medvedev UFA 4g/13p
Brandon Manning RFA 1g/7p
Manning and Weal will most likely receive qualifying offer and return to the organization, although Manning has a better shot at staying with the big club. Ganger and Medvedev will most likely not return. However if either were willing to come back on one year deals under .925m then I could see resigning them. Worst case you waive them and put them with the Phantoms at no cost.
Now lets look at some of the guys that are under contract for next season but could be either traded or bought out. Probably more than half of these guys will be back but its more about the potential a trade or buyout. Also for this I will assume Lecavalier will honer his handshake agreement to retire, clearing his 2.25m cap hit for retained salary.
R.J. Umberger 1y/4.6m 2g/11p
Matt Read 2y/3.625m 11g/26p
Mark Streit 1y/5.25m 6g/23p
Andrew MacDonald 4y/5m 1g/8p
Nick Schultz 1y/2.25m 1g/10p
Umberger almost certainly will be bought out, the only reason he would be kept would be if Hextall decided they could afford to pay him to sit on the bench as oppose to having that extra year of 1.5m if he were bought out, but to me he would be just blocking the way for younger players to get a look. Buy him out, save 3 million this season and be done with it.
If Matt Read had scored 4 more goals I doubt people would be so down on him but his play is far away from his rookie season right now. I think he is still a top 9 forward and still provided value but at the same time he could most likely be replaced by younger and cheaper options, If someone offered a 2nd I would take it but other than that keep him and let him fight wtih the likes of Konecny for a spot.
Mark Streit is another player who still has value but if a team came with an offer of a pair of 2nds I would take it a heart beat. Let him come to camp, if he is beaten out by the likes of Provorov then trade him.
Same goes for Schultz, bring him to camp and if he is better than Morin than you keep him. I know we all want to get younger but the kids will have to earn it by being better than these guys. To me it comes down to Read VS Konecny, Streit VS Provorov and Schultz VS Morin at camp, losers get traded or demoted.
Last but not least we have Andy Macdonald. I will start by saying that if he was being paid $1 million a season there would be no problem. He is a capable 5-6 that could fill in the 3-4 if needed. But he is not being paid like a 5-6, no he is being paid like a 1-2 and that is the problem. Probably the biggest problem the Flyers have right now and that pains me to say as a fellow Cape Bretoner. I want to like him so badly, and I'm also sure he is a great guy(we all are). But Andy Macdonalds contract is bad and basically unmovable. Buying him out would be even harder to swallow than keeping him however. I don't think any of us could bear seeing his name on the payroll for 8 more years! Best case scenario is he plays better this season and maybe we can eat half his salary at the end of the season and trade him back to the Islanders or something. 3 years at $2.5 million might be easier to swallow.
So lets put it all together and project next seasons roster. For this we will set the cap at $74 million.
Jakub Voracek(8.25m) Claude Giroux(8.275m) Wayne Simmonds(3.975m)
Micheal Raffl(2.35m) Sean Couturier(4.333m) Brayden Schenn(4.5m)
Matt Read(3.625m) Scott Laughton(.833m) Travis Konecny(.925m)
Chris Vandervelde(.712m) P.E. Bellemare(.712m) Ryan White(1m)
Nick Cousins(1m)
Micheal Del Zotto(3.875m) Shayne Gostisbehere(.925m)
Nick Schultz(2.25m) Mark Streit(5.25m)
Ivan Provorov(.925m) Radko Gudas(3.2m)
Brandon Manning(.65m)
Steve Mason(4.1m)
Micheal Neuvirth(1.625m)
Buyout - R.J. Umberger(1.6m)
Buried - Andrew Macdonald(4.075m)
Total $68.965m
Cap Space $5.035m
Like I said If Provorov, Morin or Konecny do beat out Streit, Schults or Read than we could most likely trade any of the latter and save the difference. And of course I am sure we will most likely sign a guy or two in the offseason. There is also the chance Hextall goes big game hunting because with 5 million in space now than you can stash a guy in the minors and sign someone for 6 million to take his spot without trading anyone. Milan Lucic is really the only guy I would consider, as despite a move away from face punching, I think his Power and goal scoring was an element that this seasons flyers team was missing, and besides he was pretty much born to were the orange and black.
Top 5 prospects who will be competing for NHL jobs THIS season.
1. D Ivan Provorov 19 62gp21g73p+64 ETA Beginning 2016-17 Projected: Top Pair D
2. RW Travis Konecny 19 60gp30g101p+34 ETA Beginning 2016-17 Projected: Top 6 F
3. D Sam Morin 21 76gp4g19p-5 ETA Middle 2016-17 Projected: Top 4 D
4. LW Taylor Leier 22 71gp20g49p+2 ETA Middle 2016-17 Projected: Bottom 6 F
5. G Anthony Stolarz 22 47gp21w.916sv%0SO ETA Middle 2016-17 Projected: Backup
Top 5 prospects who will be competing for NHL jobs NEXT season.
1. D Travis Sainheim 20 52gp15g68p+15 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Top pair D
2. D Robert Hagg 21 65gp5g11p-11 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Top 6 D
3. RW Nicolas Aube Kubel 20 61gp38g84p+38 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Bottom 6 F
4. C Radel Fazleev 20 59gp19g71p+17 ETA Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Bottom 6 F
5. LW Oscar Lindblom 20 48gp8g25p+3 Beginning 2017-18 Projected: Top 9 F
Honorable mentions: D Philippe Myers(63gp17g45p+52) ETA 2018-19, G Alex Lyon(31gp19w.936sv%5SO) ETA 2018-19
Now Finally lets take a quick look at the draft. Guessing who will be available at 18 is a tough thing to do so I won't try(Max Jones!). Instead I will propose a scenario where the flyers trade up with Edmonton and pick 4th.
To Phi
4th overall, Andrew Ference(1y/3.25m)
To Edm
18th overall, Sam Morin, Nicholas Abel Kubel, Micheal Neuvirth(1y/1.625m), Mark Streit(2m retained)(1y/3.25m)
With the 4th overall selection the Philadelphia Flyers are proud to select, from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, Pierre Luc(Jamie Benn) Dubios!
Feel free to comment and Thanks for reading!
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05 Hextall Era
Dream on
Dream on with that trade.
I wont tell you to dream on, but I will say I have a hard time believing Edmonton would ever think about doing that deal.