Winning, like losing, is a habit. When the raw talent is there, but the pieces just don't seem to click together, that's a team who has lost the habit of winning.
At the beginning of the season, and even mid-season when the Senators faced the Red Wings, we were shown a team who
expected to win every game. That chemistry and smoothness was prevalent as far back as the pre-season, where the Senators did a pretty good impression of a steam roller, with Spezza leading the charge.
How have things changed. Up until the departure of John Paddock, we saw a team that was a team no more. We could only cringe and witness a bunch of talented individuals playing as individuals. What changed so drastically? What initiated this painful decline?
It all boils down to a question of confidence. When you're sure that you'll win the battles for the puck, you have confidence. When you know there is no way the other guy is getting around you, you have confidence. When you know that your teammates and your coach appreciate your contributions to the team, you have confidence. And you play hard.
That personal confidence trickles out to the team, and soon, players gain confidence in others . When you know absolutely that you can drop that pass blind, you have confidence in the others. When you can let an opponent skate past because you know he's covered, that's confidence in the others. When you know that any opponent who messes with you will face sure retribution, that's confidence in the others. Then you have team confidence, and it is easy to win. And winning becomes a habit.
The Senators plain lost their confidence in each other, and by the same token in themselves. The loss of that confidence in the others, resulted in players playing a bit outside of their role, trying to cover for others. That snowballed in players not performing their role as expected, and getting beaten when they shouldn't. Which leads to the inevitable: "What's wrong with me? I play better than this..."
But there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The return of Bryan Murray behind the bench has already produced significant changes in the team's outlook. We are seeing a grittier style of hockey that emphasizes roles, and a return to the basics. The last game of the Senators against the Ducks, while a loss, showed us what the Sens are capable of and, I think, breathed a bit more confidence in the individual players, and by extension, the team. Murray is no small part in this equation, showing the grit and heat he is famous for, getting himself ejected from the game for his loud criticism of the referee. This is exactly what the team needs; some fire and passion, and combativeness.
With only 15 games left, and the Sens facing a Sharks team that has strung together 6 wins, it's still not too late. The last ten games of the season will tell us a lot. If the Senators can regain their team confidence, and string a winning streak in those last games, then watch out. Firing on all cylinders, the Senators are easily big enough, fast enough, gritty enough, and talented enough to make it all the way.