C4LL4W4Y

"Blueline Blast"

NJ • 29 Years Old • Male

The 15 Game Test - Part 2

In my previous blog (http://my.hockeybuzz.com/...id=24712&post_id=7562), I applied what I called the '15 Game Test' to the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs' first round matchups. Simply put, in each series I predicted a winner based on the amount of points each team obtained in its last 15 regular season games.

At the suggestion of another writer, I have decided to apply the test to all of the first round matchups from the last three postseasons.

2007-2008

Montreal (11-3-1) 23 pts - correct; Montreal wins 4-3
Boston (6-4-5) 17 pts

Pittsburgh (10-4-1) 21 pts - correct; Pitt wins 4-0
Ottawa (6-7-2) 17 pts

Washington (10-3-2) 22 pts - incorrect; Phi wins 4-3
Philadelphia (9-3-3) 21 pts

New Jersey (8-6-1) 17 pts
New York Rangers (8-3-4) 20 pts - correct; NYR wins 4-1

Detroit (11-3-1) 23 pts - correct; DET wins 4-2
Nashville (7-7-1) 15 pts

San Jose (11-2-2) 24 pts - correct; SJ wins 4-3
Calgary (7-7-1) 15 pts

Minnesota (7-3-5) 19 pts
Colorado (9-5-1) 19 pts - correct; COL wins 4-2

Anaheim (10-4-1) 21 pts
Dallas (5-8-2) 12 pts - incorrect; DAL wins 4-2


2006-2007

Buffalo (9-4-2) 20 pts - correct; Buf wins 4-1
New York Islanders (7-6-2) 16 pts

New Jersey (9-5-1) 19 pts - correct; NJ wins 4-2
Tampa Bay (7-7-1) 15 pts

Atlanta (9-5-1) 19 pts
New York Rangers (9-3-3) 21 pts - correct; NYR wins 4-0

Ottawa (10-2-3) 23 pts
Pittsburgh (11-3-1) 23 pts - incorrect; OTT wins 4-1

Detroit (8-3-4) 20 pts - correct; DET wins 4-2
Calgary (7-7-1) 15 pts

Anaheim (9-3-3) 21 pts - incorrect; ANA wins 4-1
Minnesota (12-2-1) 25 pts

Vancouver (9-4-2) 20 pts - incorrect; VAN wins 4-3
Dallas (11-2-2) 24 pts

Nashville (7-5-3) 17 pts
San Jose (11-1-3) 25 pts - correct; SJ wins 4-1

2005-2006

Ottawa (6-6-3) 15 pts
Tampa Bay (8-5-2) 18 pts - incorrect; OTT wins 4-1

Carolina (7-6-2) 16 pts
Montreal (10-5-0) 20 pts - incorrect; CAR wins 4-2

New Jersey (12-2-1) 25 pts - correct; NJ wins 4-0
New York Rangers (6-7-2) 14 pts

Buffalo (8-6-1) 17 pts
Philadelphia (9-5-1) 19 pts - incorrect; BUF wins 4-2

Detroit (11-1-3) 25 pts
Edmonton (7-5-3) 17 pts - incorrect; EDM wins 4-2

Dallas (8-4-3) 19 pts
Colorado (6-6-3) 15 pts - incorrect; COL wins 4-1

Calgary (8-4-3) 19 pts
Anaheim (9-6-0) 18 pts - incorrect; ANA wins 4-3

San Jose (10-4-1) 21 pts - correct; SJ wins 4-1
Nashville (9-6-0) 18 pts


Findings: the test predicted the actual winner in 13 of the 24 first round playoff series contested since the lockout - hardly a convincing number (approximately 54%). It was most accurate in 07-08 and least accurate in 05-06, showing an increase in accuracy over each of the past three seasons. However, I'd hesitate to draw any conclusions from that observation as our sample size is still relatively small.

As far as the points discrepencies between teams facing off against one another, the data is even less convincing. While matchups like the NJ-NYR series from 06, the SJ-NSH series from 07, and the SJ-CGY and DET-NSH series' from 07-08 agreed with the theory, several other matchups (most notably EDM-DET from 05-06) went in the complete opposite direction.

My conclusion is that while it certainly helps to be hot, many analysts and fans overvalue the concept of getting on a roll going into the playoffs. Perhaps coaching and player matchups are more important - or that once the playoffs roll around, the regular season is completely in the past.

One final note to go along with that point: San Jose has finished exceptionally strong in the three seasons prior to this one (21, 25, and 24 points) and but failed to advance past the 2nd round in each of those postseasons. This year they finished with 19 points over their final 15 games - could this be the year they work out their kinks and finally get over the hump? Only time will tell.

Enjoy the playoffs!