Support by Numbers Part 1
Posted 6:17 PM ET | Comments 5
Every team needs a great supporting cast, a machine, to do the dirty work and chip in every now and then. These players are best when they are responsible, inexpensive and full of heart. In the past the Sens have had issues with secondary scoring that only was not apparent the year we went to the cup finals. We have always had a plethora of guys to plays the roles, but it never seemed to work.
This year the Sens seem to have a solid top six at 28.4 Mil. (One half of the 56.4 mil salary cap ceiling) I would like to see 400 points form these guys. That’s a little over 70k per point, and about 66 points per player. This should be easy for players like Spezza, Kovalev and Alfredsson, but maybe a challenge for Michalek, Cheechoo and Fisher.
Our bottom six is a bit more up in the air. While we have sort-of an idea who’s available, we don’t know who will be paired and who will last the season. With “shoe-in” guys like Kelly, Ruutu and Neil set to make the team, their 5.4 Mil Cap hit is a bit expensive for what are essentially fourth line players. Combined with their 54 points (At a cost of 100k per point), is a little sub-par for professional hockey players. Ruutu is inexpensive and worth his weight in trade dollars however we will need guys like this now that our division has gotten stronger and tougher. Neil just signed his 4 year $8 Mil contract, and there have been talks of giving him the vacant “A”. Based on this I wouldn’t expect Neil to be traded to make room. Kelly has been signed to the John Mucklar Special too much money for too long. (We’re just lucky he doesn’t have a NMC). Due to our surplus of centers I can see Kelly being a great depth player for another team. Although I do hate to part with Chris Kelly, he does have the most value to his name.
Who else is left? Winchester, Foligno, Donovan, Regin, Shannon, and hell, you can count Christoph Schubert in here too. These six guys are playing for four spots. I would like to see the youth here. Foligno, Winchester and Regin with Shannon as a spare. These guys cost 2 Mil with an expected point production of about 90 points, 22 k a point, not too bad. These three will probably be our 2nd liners in about 2 years. Which leaves out Schubert and Donovan. These two will be gone by years end and have no relative future with the team, pending a divine miracle, these two will be dealt to a team that is in need of depth at an inexpensive cost, for late draft picks, or just plain waived. Of these two Donovan has the most trade value and most likely will be dealt, as for Schubert, look for him to be sent to Bingo.
Look for the following lines this year:
Kovalev-Spezza-Chechoo 15.0 Mil 215 Pts
Alfredsson-Fisher-Michalek 13.4 Mil 185 Pts
Neil-Kelly-Ruutu 5.4 Mil 70 Pts
Foligno-Winchester-Shannon 2.0 Mil 50 Pts
Regin
Stay Tuned for the Defence including Goaltending
This year the Sens seem to have a solid top six at 28.4 Mil. (One half of the 56.4 mil salary cap ceiling) I would like to see 400 points form these guys. That’s a little over 70k per point, and about 66 points per player. This should be easy for players like Spezza, Kovalev and Alfredsson, but maybe a challenge for Michalek, Cheechoo and Fisher.
Our bottom six is a bit more up in the air. While we have sort-of an idea who’s available, we don’t know who will be paired and who will last the season. With “shoe-in” guys like Kelly, Ruutu and Neil set to make the team, their 5.4 Mil Cap hit is a bit expensive for what are essentially fourth line players. Combined with their 54 points (At a cost of 100k per point), is a little sub-par for professional hockey players. Ruutu is inexpensive and worth his weight in trade dollars however we will need guys like this now that our division has gotten stronger and tougher. Neil just signed his 4 year $8 Mil contract, and there have been talks of giving him the vacant “A”. Based on this I wouldn’t expect Neil to be traded to make room. Kelly has been signed to the John Mucklar Special too much money for too long. (We’re just lucky he doesn’t have a NMC). Due to our surplus of centers I can see Kelly being a great depth player for another team. Although I do hate to part with Chris Kelly, he does have the most value to his name.
Who else is left? Winchester, Foligno, Donovan, Regin, Shannon, and hell, you can count Christoph Schubert in here too. These six guys are playing for four spots. I would like to see the youth here. Foligno, Winchester and Regin with Shannon as a spare. These guys cost 2 Mil with an expected point production of about 90 points, 22 k a point, not too bad. These three will probably be our 2nd liners in about 2 years. Which leaves out Schubert and Donovan. These two will be gone by years end and have no relative future with the team, pending a divine miracle, these two will be dealt to a team that is in need of depth at an inexpensive cost, for late draft picks, or just plain waived. Of these two Donovan has the most trade value and most likely will be dealt, as for Schubert, look for him to be sent to Bingo.
Look for the following lines this year:
Kovalev-Spezza-Chechoo 15.0 Mil 215 Pts
Alfredsson-Fisher-Michalek 13.4 Mil 185 Pts
Neil-Kelly-Ruutu 5.4 Mil 70 Pts
Foligno-Winchester-Shannon 2.0 Mil 50 Pts
Regin
Stay Tuned for the Defence including Goaltending
Those are awful lines. Foligno on the 4th line? Alfie on LW?Michalek - Spezza - AlfredssonKovalev - Regin/Shannon - CheechooFoligno - Regin/Shannon - FisherRuutu - Winchester - NeilDonovanKelly and Shubert traded/waived
Milan Michalek-Jason Spezza-Daniel Alfredsson Mike Fisher-Peter Regin-Alex Kovalev Nick Foligno-Ryan Shannon-Jonathan Cheechoo Jarkko Ruutu-Chris Kelly-Chris Neil That leaves Shean Donovan, Christoph Schubert and Zack Smith as the extra forwards, with Jesse Winchester out three weeks recovering from a knee injury. This is how the defensive pairings are looking: Chris Phillips-Anton Volchenkov Filip Kuba-Erik Karlsson Alex Picard-Chris Campoli Matt Carkner-Brian Lee
the point is not about the combinations. there are several different combinations out there, the point is economically CA$H OUT <-> PRODUCTION mix the players who you want. From a GM perspective you must be aware of how much you spend for the production you get. For example, the introduction of Peter Regin centering the Fisher line distributes spending and increases point production, but having Donovan on the kelly-neil line does the opposite. That's the point i was trying to make.
I think the best teams have their money spread across the forwards, defense and goaltending. With the size of the superstars contracts now, it also requires a balancing act of veterans and youth, with some superstar youth as a big part of the team. This is why every team in the league now is vulnerable. 1 or 2 injuries and the team goes from a contender to the the draft lottery really quickly!