stljam

"It's a great day for hockey!"

St. Louis, MO • United States • 39 Years Old • Male

In Allen they trust?

In Allen we trust….maybe we shouldn’t? <br> </br>Are Blues fans and the Blues organization are ready to put a lot of faith in Jake Allen to take the reins and try and lead the team to the promise land? Allen has been paying his dues in the AHL since 2010 and enjoyed a successful February 2013 with the Blues. He’s been a good organizational team player and seems ready to be given a bigger chance. I truly hope he is able to make the most of it. <br /> <br />Unfortunately, when I look at Allen and his production, I see a number of things that suggest red flags and am concerned. Many people will point to how he injected life into the Blues and helped steady the ship in 2013 but let’s delve into his 2013 stint with a more discerning eye while trying to look past his save of the year. When you look further into the numbers, some things concern me. Did you know? <br /> <br />1) His January and March save percentages were both under 90% which brought his entire save percentage down to 90.5%, putting him behind Brian Elliott for the season. <br />2) He had 9 wins, four of them in extra time, to go with his 6 losses for only a 98 point season pace.<br />3) His goals against average was higher than both Halak and Elliott’s goals against average. <br />4) The Blues averaged 3.9 goals scored per game in his wins while the team averaged 2.7 goals per game for the season. <br />5) Overall, the Blues averaged 10% more goals in Allen’s starts. <br />6) The Blues lost 4 of his last 5 games played during which he had a terrible 85.7% save percentage. <br /> <br />Given that data, it was easy for me to see why the Blues gave him another year in the AHL. He took that challenge and posted his best professional season with 11 shutouts, a 92.8% save percentage and a stingy 2.03 goals against average. Unfortunately, when it mattered most, the playoffs, the wheels appear to have come off the cart with his goals against average increasing by more then 50% to 3.29 and his save percentage falling almost 5% to 87.9%. Surely some of this fall off is a result of the team’s play in front of him but Allen’s historical data seems to suggest that he regresses in important games. <br /> <br />Does it concern you that in his last two international competition games he has a GAA over 7.00 and a save percentage barely over 80%? <br /> <br />Does it concern you that not only this year but in every year since 2008, Allen’s save percentage and goals against have been worse in the playoffs as compared to the regular season. His save percentage reduction ranges from 2% to 5%, while his goals against average increase from 0.30 to 1.30. Again, his save percentage and goals against average are worse in the playoffs in EVERY year since 2007-08. <br /> <br />For comparative purposes, I looked at the AHL history of Rask, Quick, Crawford, Price and Lehtonen. In their 9 playoff years, only one time was their goals against average worse. Their save percentage was worse in two years, though one of them had a fall off of less than 1% while still being 91%. Their 9 playoff years saw a simple, non-weighted increase in save percentage of 1.2% and a lowering of their goals against average by 0.33. In comparison, Allen has a simple, non-weighted decrease in save percentage of 3.4% and a 0.85 increase in his goals against average, making spread of their improvement versus his regression almost a 5% save percentage difference and over a goal a game difference in goals against average. <br /> <br />We all know how important it is for goalies to elevate their game in the playoffs, something Allen has been unable to do so far in his professional career. Will this history continue to repeat itself? Here’s to hoping he reverses the trend next year. If he doesn’t and is given the playoff reins, it will be another short spring for the Blues and a long summer for their fans. <br /> <br />It’s a great day for hockey, I just wish the Blues had a game Sunday. <br /> <br />