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Look at how erect McDavid is- BB • Netherlands • 24 Years Old • Male
I'm gonna come right outta the gate and say what qualifies as sacrilege within the Oilers community: Darnell Nurse is the Oilers' best Dman and attempts to trade him under the pretense that his minutes could be replaced by Klefbom aren't just wrong, they're blind to statistically observable reality. I guess I should actually get to the evidence before asserting things so strongly.

There's long been fingers pointed at Darnell Nurse for his myriad mistakes and his weaknesses. While these aren't inaccurate critiques, there's a gap I've noticed between Nurse and fellow Oilers LD Oscar Klefbom in credit given relative to actual results. The prevailing wisdom that Klefbom is our best and most valuable Dman is one I intend to challenge.


Offense

There are a few ways to frame the offense comparison: even strength points (rates and raw); shot, chance and goal shares; shot, chance and goal rates and the above two within the specific context of on-ice with McDavid. As I'm not keen on neglecting any avenue, I'll try to address all of them.

All data will be taken from a sample size running from 2017-18 to present day unless stated otherwise.

Klefbom: 8 goals & 39 points in 157 games (0.25 pts/game)
---per-60 rates: 0.71, 0.86, 0.86 the last 3 years
Nurse: 17 goals & 69 points in 194 games (0.36 pts/game)
---per-60 rates: 0.97, 1.13, 1.22 the last 3 years


Right off the hop, there's a pretty clear gap showing. It's not like either got particularly easier deployment or more time with McDavid as both were part of a top-4 D that both McLellan and Hitchcock used in near-equal amounts against top opposition. Nurse is clearly the stronger producer overall, but how do the "process" numbers matchup?

Stat_:_Klefbom_/_Nurse

CF%: 50.1% / 48.9%
SCF%: 48.7% / 49.7%
HDCF%: 49.5% / 48.4%
GF%: 42.2% / 50.0% (totaling a difference of 35 goals)


Overall, the shot and chance numbers favour Klefbom by a slight margin but the gap isn't one I'd consider statistically significant- especially once the goal share number is taken into account. Nurse blows Klefbom away in that respect. How about the rates?

Stat_:_Klefbom_/_Nurse

CF/60: 58.6 / 55.4
SCF/60: 27.1 / 27.4
HDCF/60: 11.3 / 11.1
GF/60: 2.05 / 2.63


Once again, Klefbom and Nurse are pretty close in the shot and chance numbers, but once actual results are factored in, the field becomes Nurse's by a wide margin. Due to the substantial disparity between their goal share numbers and Nurse's actual offensive production, it leads me to the conclusion that Nurse is the better offensive player (at least at even strength).


Defense

Now let's quickly do the same rate analysis as we did for offense.

Stat_:_Klefbom_/_Nurse

CA/60: 58.5 / 57.9
SCA/60: 28.6 / 28.0
HDCA/60: 11.5 / 11.8
GA/60: 2.8 / 2.63


As would be expected, much of the same story is borne out in the other side of the rate data. Now, how about some nuance: goal data against varying levels of competition.


Against Top Competition:


As I mentioned earlier, both players played a similar proportion of their minutes against top opposition (Nurse with 34.7% of his time against the best, Klefbom with 32.4%). Also, both have had similar deployment alongside McDavid (Nurse has played 42.7% of his TOI w/ McDavid, Klefbom with 39.8%) so, since these two things likely overlap a bunch, comparing their numbers against the best opponents should be a relatively fair gauge.

Player: CF% / DFF%* / GF%
Klefbom: 46.8% / 46.6% / 48.7%
Nurse: 45.0% / 45.4% / 58.4% (!!!)

*DFF% is an abbreviation for 'Dangerous Fenwick For %' which refers to unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick) from dangerous areas on the ice (the slot arrow)


Are you beginning to see the trend? Klefbom consistently has an edge in overall shot results but Nurse consistently dominates the goal share battle when compared to Klefbom. As the goal of hockey is to outscore your opposition, Nurse is showing to be much more capable of that ultimate goal.


Impact w/ McDavid:


Now we're getting to the part that kinda pushed me to write this all out. The following will be presented as simply and without extrapolation as possible because I think the numbers over such a large sample size speak for themselves. These are the goal rates from each player when on-ice with McDavid.

Player: GF/60 / GA/60 / total /60) / GF% w/o McDavid
Klefbom: 3.2 / 3.25 / -0.05 G/60 / 34.8%
Nurse: 3.8 / 2.71 / +1.09 G/60 / 43.5%


With a difference of +1.14 on-ice goals per-60 minutes, Nurse clearly is more effective at maximizing the even strength success of McDavid. The time in which McDavid is on the ice is the most important to the team's eventual success and Nurse contributes more to that. Further, he gives less of the goal share back when he's not on the ice with McDavid, too.


Additional considerations:


Additional considerations that need to be made to continue weighing each player's value to the team includes the following list: Nurse is more physical (important for the playoffs), more durable (the more games he plays, the less a replacement player does), a substantial portion of his minutes over this sample were alongside Kris Russell (who many fans decry as being worse than Satan), he offers intensity that can give his team a boost (once again, for the playoffs), he's part of the social core of the team with McDavid and Draisaitl (the human element isn't considered enough) and he's two years younger than Oscar.

In Klefbom's favour: he has an excellent contract, takes fewer penalties and is a more proven PP producer.


Conclusion:

As I've now evidenced across multiple domains and circumstances, Darnell Nurse is clearly the more important defenseman to both the present and future success of the Edmonton Oilers. If it were to come down to it and you had to trade one due to Nurse's contract demands, you should trade Klefbom every day of the week unless sending Nurse out returns an elite RD of similar age. Fortunately, we don't need to trade either and can put Klefbom in a position where he's better equipped to succeed!

Don't @ me with your "analytical retort", HB77
Filed Under:   Edmonton   Oilers   Nurse   Klefbom   Comparison  
December 19, 2019 12:36 PM ET | Delete
Apparently Nurse's team recently told the Oilers that 6.8 million/year wont get him signed. He's a good defender, I won't argue that point, but the Oilers can't afford him. C-ya.
December 24, 2019 2:25 PM ET | Delete
Klefbom @ 4.1M >> Nurse @ 7.5 M which is what it will take to sign him
December 24, 2019 4:06 PM ET | Delete
Rather have Klefbom at 4.1 as no.1 as opposed to Nurse at $7
January 8, 2020 2:17 AM ET | Delete
click
January 9, 2020 6:11 AM ET | Delete
Thanks for the info.
January 13, 2020 11:58 PM ET | Delete
I say keep both. What would be wrong with having a really good defense?
January 23, 2020 7:13 PM ET | Delete
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January 24, 2020 12:43 PM ET | Delete
I agree with Towelie, that is if the Oil can afford to keep both. The salary cap otherwise always forces compromise and mediocrity.
February 5, 2020 10:40 AM ET | Delete
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February 6, 2020 2:39 AM ET | Delete
I really don't imagine the Oilers spending more than 7 million dollars on Darnell Nurse. They don't have a whole lot of cap space to begin with and they will only be dumping several million dollars, assuming they let Gagner walk. They'll sign Bear and Benning for reasonably cheap deals, but they cannot afford to overpay Nurse with the bottom half of the lineup looking like this. He is an RFA and if another team wants to offer 7 million dollars, they should take the 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. The Oilers should offer him 6 million dollars and call it a day. He is a good defender, but seven million dollars could be better spent in my opinion. Unless there is a plan to add some scoring depth, I don't see Nurse warranting that price tag.
February 10, 2020 10:00 PM ET | Delete
I have to disagree, with nothing but respect. But the warning sign that comes flashing to my mind, was last year we lost Klefbom, went on the 12 or 13 game losing streak. Darnell could not keep his head above water. I know you have all those fancy statistics. But at the end of day, under the eye test at least, A healthy klefbom is far more valueable than Nurse.
February 19, 2020 5:18 AM ET | Delete
Appreciated
February 19, 2020 5:19 AM ET | Delete
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