obe24

Minneapolis, MN • United States • 31 Years Old • Male

Avs Season Circling Drain?

With 40 games remaining in the season, I suggested that the Avs should consider this remainder in 10 game increments. I also stated that in order to secure a playoff spot, the Avs would need to play .650 hockey, getting 13 pts out of each 10 game set. Well since then, the Avs dropped games at Columbus and at St. Louis along with home games vs. the Oilers, Kings and Sharks while winning only once at home against the Flames. Not only are they 1-5 over this disastrous stretch, they are also only 1-3 halfway through their current 8 game home stand.

If (when?) the Avs miss the playoffs, one might look back at these past 6 games and say "this is where the worm turned". Realistically, the Avs need to put together a winning streak and do it now. If not, it's hard to see how a rational person can advocate the Avs be anything but a seller at the trade deadline. The Avs must win all four of their remaining games on this homestand. Should they do this, they will get 10 points over the 10 game stretch and their homestand would be a respectable 5-3. Anything less and I think this team is in real trouble going forward. Because three point games become more common as the end of the season nears, it becomes ever more difficult to gain ground on opponents in the standings.

The Avs play has fallen down upon its old problems - poor special teams play, sub-par goaltending, and a lack of desperation. Regarding the goaltending, I think I have finally switched sides on the issue of Peter Budaj. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at the beginning of the season. He deserved a shot at the #1 job. Well he got his chance and he has not shown that he is capable of performing at that level. I feel comfortable making that assessment now nearly 50 games in to the season. His career is looking more and more like David Aebischer's. My guess is that he will soon follow in Aebischer's footsteps and head back to Europe. Budaj is a restricted free agent next year, so it will be interesting to see what the Avs do with him. I can't imagine them offering him arbitration; I think he would be awarded far more than he is worth. His value now is only as a backup, nothing more. Even paying him as a below average starter (his role this season) would be too much.

Anyways, we can save the personnel speculation for later, but the reality is that the goaltending isn't getting any better and the special teams are awful. Regardless of McNabb's humorous pronouncement that there was a "playoff feel" to the Avs locker room, there was little desperation against the Sharks. There is no shame in losing to the Sharks; they are a very good team. The Avs actually played a decent game, but at some point here that means very little. The Avs have to capitalize on their opportunities (such as the open nets missed by Smyth and Lappy) and must win the special teams battle. Will Stastny's return be enough to make the necessary improvements on special teams? Personally, I doubt it. It will be great to get him back, but the problems run deeper than one man.

Let's see if the Avs really mean what they say about desperation tonight against a below average Leafs team. Like the games against the Blues and Kings that the Avs lost, these are two points that playoff teams get (see the Wild on Tuesday). The Avs have very little margin for error, and if their slump continues, they could be out of the picture by mid-February.

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