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Lethbridge, AB • Canada • 2013 Years Old • Male

The Horcoff Debate

Posted 6:18 AM ET | Comments 10
This blog will basically break down a bunch of numbers associated with Shawn Horcoff since the lock-out, and look at comparable players/contracts.

Horcoff since the lockout:
09/10: 11P/23GP =0.48P/GP Playing injured, now w/o Hemsky
08/09: 53P/80GP =0.66P/GP Roughly 0.7
07/08: 50P/53GP =0.94P/GP Roughly 1
06/07: 51P/80GP =0.64P/GP Roughly 0.7
05/06: 73P/79GP =0.92P/GP Roughly 1

Time On Ice numbers:
09/10: ES TOI/G: 14:55; SH TOI/G: 2:13; PP TOI/G: 3:14; T TOI/G: 20:22
08/09: ES TOI/G: 14:19; SH TOI/G: 3:17; PP TOI/G: 3:44; T TOI/G 21:21
07/08: ES TOI/G: 15:15; SH TOI/G: 2:47; PP TOI/G: 4:10; T TOI/G: 22:13
06/07: ES TOI/G: 13:51; SH TOI/G: 3:25; PP TOI/G: 3:32; T TOI/G: 20:49
05/06: ES TOI/G: 13:21; SH TOI/G: 2:50; PP TOI/G: 3:46; T TOI/G: 19:58

Notice that when Horcoff's SH time decreases and his PP time increases, his point production goes up to around 0.93 rather than 0.65. I would expect Horcoff's numbers to improve this season if his TOI numbers continue the same trend. (Although, W/o Hemsky, probably not up to 0.93PPG...)

09/10: 33rd, 376 taken, 48.9% 23GP = 16/game
08/09: 1st, 1756 taken, 53.9% 80GP =22/game
07/08: 54th, 963 taken, 50.6% 53GP =18/game
06/07: 13th, 1422 taken, 50.6% 80GP = 17/game
05/06: 14th, 1421 taken, 52.7% 79GP =18/game

Clearly there is something wrong with Horcoff's shoulder. I expect his numbers to improve over the season.

Comparables from Last Season:
Chris Drury: 56P/81GP =0.7PPG
Age: 33, Cap hit: $7 050 000

Nik Antropov: 59P/81GP =0.73PPG
Age: 29; Cap hit: $4 062 500

Ryan Kesler: 59/82GP =0.72PPG
Age: 25; Cap hit: $1 750 000 (Will sign new contract this year, RFA)

Shawn Horcoff: 53P/80GP =0.66
Age: 31; Cap hit: $5 500 000

Rod Brind'Amour: 51P/80GP =0.64PPG
Age: 39, Cap hit: $3 600 000

Jordan Staal: 49P/82GP=0.6PPG (very comparable TOI numbers...)
Age: 21; Cap hit: $4 000 000

David Legwand: 42P/73GP =0.58PPG
Age: 29; Cap hit: $4 500 000

Comparables so far this season (AKA: other big contract players who are struggling):
Eric Staal: 9P/17GP, Cap hit: $8 250 000
Shawn Gomez: 11P/23GP, Cap hit: $7 357 000
Thomas Vanek: 15P/22GP, Cap hit: $7 143 000
Chris Drury: 9P/22GP, Cap hit: $7 050 000
Paul Kariya: 11P/25GP, Cap hit: $6 000 000
Shawn Horcoff: 11P/23GP, Cap Hit: $5 500 000
Jason Pominville: 16P/24GP, Cap hit: $5 300 000
Brian Rolston: 13P/23GP, Cap hit: $5 062 000
Alexei Kovalev: 11P/22GP, Cap hit: $5 000 000
Nylander, Michael: 0P/0GP, Cap hit: $4 875 000
Patrice Bergeron: 18P/26GP, Cap hit: $4 750 000
Shane Doan: 18P/27GP, Cap hit: $4 550 000
Martin Erat: 9P/23GP, Cap Hit: $4 500 000
David Legwand: 14P/26GP, Cap Hit: $4 500 000

So, to sum up:
There are a lot of players struggling this season, some with much larger cap hits than Horcoff, others with slightly less. It is very early to be screaming for trades, and stupid to sell low.
He will probably be a 0.6-0.7PPG player, especially with all the SH ice time he gets.
He plays the toughest competition and takes the most faceoffs.
He leads all forwards in ES TOI/G and SH TOI/G this season, but is 5th among forwards in PP TOI/G.
Take out some SH and add some PP time, and Horcoff could once again hit 0.8 or 0.9PPG.
Looking at TOI from 2008/2009, good comparables for Horcoff are: Jordan Staal (49P/82GP), Ryan Kesler (59P/82GP), and Michal Handzus (42P/82GP, $4 mil Cap). With his current TOI numbers, I expect him to finish somewhere around 60-65P/76GP, if he plays every game left this season.
Kesler will use Horcoff's contract to negotiate his own and he is in for a HUGE raise. Bank on that.
Horcoff's contract: not as bad as many people make it out to seem... Just hope that Horcoff starts playing more like Kesler (24P/26GP, even) and less like Brind'Amour (8P/27G, -19)
December 2, 2009 1:17 PM ET | Delete
Antropov's cap hit last year was a shade over 2m. His production has elevated this year with the additional salary.
December 2, 2009 1:26 PM ET | Delete
December 3, 2009 10:28 AM ET | Delete
Good job T. Unfortunatly most around here have no idea about scoring and salary trends around the league.
December 3, 2009 1:23 PM ET | Delete
Good blog, but Horcough did not start making his big bucks till this year!! And statisticly he is getting worse. I dont think Horcoff will get 60 points this year. IMO when you are the highest paid foward on a team you should make the players around you better, something he is not capable of doing.
December 3, 2009 1:29 PM ET | Delete
Kesler deserves Horcoff money because he is almost a point a game player, and he is their two way centerman and I dont like him at all but if I had a choice between Horcoff and Kesler, I am taking Kesler. Kesler is on pace for a 70 point season(not playing with the sisters) Horcoff is on pace for a 40 point season and also will be a minus player at the end of the year.
December 3, 2009 3:17 PM ET | Delete
according to nhlnumbers.com, Horcof is making 7 million this season. That's way off 5.5. Altough I agree that we can't sell low, that's Iginla type money.
December 3, 2009 3:41 PM ET | Delete
He is making 7 mil this season, but his cap hit is 5.5.
December 4, 2009 2:17 PM ET | Delete
Who cares, ther are 7 miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiillllllllllllllion reasons why he is not worth it. Or maybe 5.5 mil just sounds better. WTF
December 4, 2009 3:06 PM ET | Delete
@ Tschutz. We use 5.5 because unless the team has an internal budget below the cap that we are unaware of, the 5.5 is all that matters. Do you understand front loading?
December 5, 2009 3:55 PM ET | Delete
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