Tomorrow will mark what happens to Ryan O'Reilly's situation with the Colorado Avalanche. Ryan is looking to stay in Colorado, long term. The only issue here is Ryan's long term is 8 years at nearly $7m per, while Joe Sakic's idea is more like - 5 years $5.5 per (give or take .0-.999)
We all go back to free agent frenzy day and beyond when a presser was held in Denver. Sakic and Roy both speak highly or their structure, not once but multiple times. Indicating that no player on the Avalanche roster during AT LEAST the 2014-15 season will make more than Matt Duchene (which will change to Nathan MacKinnon in the next 1-2 years.)
No hard feelings, O'Reilly is being a "businessman" right? Wrong, if the arbitration comes out to a one year deal, Ryan will be gone by trade deadline. Sakic already saw Paul Stastny walk away for free, he will NEVER let that happen a second time. Now if Ryan gets a two-year deal, this will play a little better for the Avalanche. It will give time to 2014 1st rounder Connor Bleackley time to grow. We all already know that Brent Sutter has said Connor is not NHL ready. Although he can put up some points and play pretty well two ways...he was still only a plus 3, which isn't HORRIBLE - but it still shows that he is growing into his role 100% otherwise, the kid would have been top 10. Regardless, it gives Connor growing time and another training camp to endure, by trade deadline 2016 Connor would be more than ready to fill O'Reilly's role! Assuming that of course he can step into the NHL and be a the guy we all think he will be.
Is O'Ry worth more than $6.5? Lady Byng winner this past season, which is incredible how he did it. I mean 1 penalty in 80 games and it was for a stick infraction, classic. Career highs in goals (28) and Points (64) but he was a (-1.) To be a top 6 guy and make more than $6 M you have to be able to produce and keep up your defensive side. I am not saying go +20 to 40 but a plus 8-15? No, I personally think O'Reilly is good, but he could be better and until he is a 30 goal scorer with 20+ assists and a +10 or higher he should NOT be awarded more than MAX $5.750. You can argue and say well Duchene, blah blah and he makes $6M per. Difference between Dutchy and Ory is that Dutch was the #3 overall and IF he stays 100% healthy, he will be a 80+ point scorer and his +/- has gotten better and better not worse and worse.
In all, Ryan O'Reilly is asking for 8 years and $6.750M per - The Avs are saying 5 years $5.25-5.750. The Arbitration will land either 1-2 year deal and a minimum of $5.250 per. In all retrospect players usually come out with a fair deal, in this case O'Reilly nor the Avalanche will be happy. If a 1 year deal goes and the two sides do not agree on a deal before deadline count O'Reilly gone. What assets could Colorado get for O'Reilly? With his surprising play that would have seen him a top 10 pick in his draft year, his price would be pretty high. If not a high end prospect, a high-end draft pick and more than likely an NHL ready player. Whatever point they are at in the season would be a factor on the NHL ready player. If the defense has a terrible season then it will probably head the D way and vis versa for scoring depth at the 3/4 lines.
This arbitration feels like a lose, lose for Colorado and O'Reilly, but each side will have a minimum of 7 1/2 months to decide the fate. If O'Reilly really wants to "become a winner" and win a Stanley cup, he will determine his situation. However, if he is a "true" business man - adios Colorado, hello payday!
What are your thoughts Avs fans?
Contract rewards - 1 or 2 seasons
Does Colorado trade O'Reilly if it is a 1 year deal?