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Marner Musings

Posted 2:46 AM ET | Comments 9
Mitch Marner is awesome. He plays very well in space, creates space, and finds open players at an elite level. He competes hard on the back-check, is a good penalty killer, and has a very high IQ for the game. I really like Mitch Marner. I could just end my blog here with a rant about how we should keep him at all costs and Dubas needs to break the bank to sign him. But I'm not going to do that. I've been a Leaf fan for a long time, and I plan on being a Leaf fan for the rest of my life, so the team comes first. The franchise comes first. The logo comes first. Period.

Marner is not worth 11 million dollars. Marner pre-Tavares is a 61 point player. Post-Tavares he's a 94 point player. Tavares pre-Marner is a 84 point player, who had a career high 86 points in 2014, and Tavares was an 88 point player with Marner. The difference here is very noteworthy. Marner was +33 points playing with Tavares. Tavares was +4 points playing with Marner. Taking into account the history of Tavares and how he has bumped his winger stats substantially on multiple occasions, it's quite clear that Tavares drove this line, and that Tavares is giving Marner his payday.

Take the rumour about Montreal offer-sheating Marner. So Marner is going to play with Kotkaniemi, who had 34 points last year, and this is going to allow Marner to be a 90-100 point player? Yeah probably not.

Marner has all the rights in the world to attempt to negotiate the best deal he can, but the numbers being thrown around are absurd, and the Leafs pay 11 and 11.5 to two centers that drive play and score WAY more goals than Marner, so it fits into the natural price point that Marner would earn significantly less than both Matthews and Tavares.

If Marner really does hold out in an attempt to get the Leafs to pay him a salary he's not worth, then trading him for adequate value becomes a very realistic option in order for Dubas to properly manage both his assets, and his cap. I hope Marner figures this out sooner...rather than later...or he will be wearing a different jersey when the season starts.

Marner has a chip on his shoulder, and this has been a factor in him becoming as good as he is, but it's about to become a factor in him not playing for the team he really does want to play for. The Leafs.

I trust Dubas to make the right business decision. I hope Marner puts himself in that conversation.


Filed Under:   Marner   Leafs   RFA   Dubas   Trades   Tavares  
July 20, 2019 2:58 AM ET | Delete
Being a homer and leaving a comment to get the party started. Go Leafs.
July 22, 2019 2:56 PM ET | Delete
Totally agree. Marner's true comparables are wingers. Even then I would take Kucherov, Rantanen, Kane over MM. So look at their salaries. Hell look at Draisaitl who I would trade MM for in a millisecond. He is under 10M and just scored 50 goals.
July 22, 2019 6:54 PM ET | Delete
Salaries signed in the past and salaries signed before breakout years. Marner is also 22 and this was his 3rd year in the league, that experience and maturation are a big part of his increased production - along with Tavares and Hyman. Still I think he's going to get 5 years at $10.5 million. Leafs gonna hold out a few more weeks before caving into that compromise.
July 23, 2019 8:44 AM ET | Delete
Yep check out Matt Moulson's career once he was dealt away from Tavares' wing. In fact there is an article about how Tavares has been getting wingers paydays his whole career. https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/john-tavaress-linemates-cashed-post-islanders/
July 23, 2019 11:39 AM ET | Delete
LOL this is such a homer article to justify trying to not pay MM... saying JT made him is so ridiculous. You fail to note that he has steadily increased his point totals each year in the league, his first two while averaging 16 mins of TOI, this past season it jumped to over 19 mins. Also comparing him to Kuch simply isn't fair unless you factor in the tax discount he took playing in Florida, him earning $9.5 in Florida is the equivalent to MM making closer to $11M in TO.... Patrick Kane is the best comparable player to MM and he signed for a $10.5M AAV in 2015/16 so yes MM is not making a dollar under $10.5M AAV based on his age, production and career trajectory. Lastly using Matt Moulson' name as a comparable in any way shape or form is so ludicrous, dude was 29yo when he left JT and the isles.... does not play remotely the same style of game as MM..... just knock it off.
July 25, 2019 6:30 PM ET | Delete
Dubas overpaid for Matthews... Marner's turn.
July 26, 2019 3:16 PM ET | Delete
Mikerips16,Nobody is justifying anything. Facts are already in place that clearly set Marner's theoretical value below Tavares and Matthews. That is the argument being made in the article. If Marner gets paid 11 million, then Marner himself will make that his market value. I doubt that happens.Marner has NOT increased his point totals every year to any noticeable degree until he played with JT. You are actually severely undervaluing JT as a player. Marner is very good, he's just not all-world without JT as his center. Patrick Kane signed his 10.5 deal after winning a Cup. Kane is an absolute superstar with pedigree that includes an Art Ross trophy. Kane never needed an elite center to reach his dominance offensively, he just got there on his own. Comparing Marner to Kane is not accurate at all.Marner is good dude, he just hasn't achieved the type of success that justifies 11 million.
July 30, 2019 1:13 AM ET | Delete
For 11 million you could get 15.7 Pontus Abergs though!
August 2, 2019 11:18 PM ET | Delete
afp1961, while Rantanen is a comparable for Marner I'd still rather have Mitch. Mikko's a full year older, doesn't kill penalties, and spends a couple of mins more on the PP while averaging almost the same PPG as MM.As per Kane, you'd really rather have a guy who is 8 years older who has only 3 more years of control over a kid who hasn't even reached his prime yet and is under team control (offer sheet be damned) for another 5 years?Hrmm....
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