Interesting look at the flyers future
Posted 11:32 AM ET | Comments 6
This is an interesting topic I got into a great discussion about with some guys in Tim's blog. The Flyers money situation after this season... I know its early but bare with me its pretty intriguing to me...
Players Under Contract
Offense- 8 Players at 24.137 cap hit
Gagne, Briere, Knuble, Upshall, Lupul, Hartnell, Kapanen, Eager
Defense- 5 players at 16.305 cap hit
Timonen, Kukkonen, (Rathje, Hatcher, Gauthier =9.1 million)
Goalies- 4.725 cap hit
Nitty, Biron
Total Cap hit- $45.167
Minus (9.1 mill)= $36.067
RFA: Carter, Richards, Umberger, Ruzicka, Coburn, Picard, Jones
UFA: Smith
Without a Cap increase and the assumed departure of Rathje, Hatcher, and Gauthier that leaves the flyers with $14.233 under the current NHL cap. This is an assumed departure, however, I can't see Homer keeping any of them around much longer, especially with the young D talent we have and if it means we lose carter, richards, or coburn. Theres no telling on the increase so lets stick with the current figure and simply just round down to 14 million.
14 million dollars to sign 3 Centers, 1 winger, and 4 Defensive players.
Do we feel this is enough money?
Lets highball and assume Carter scores 35+ goals this season and gets a nice $5 million a year deal. Lets also assume Richards receives say 3.5 million a year deal, which is a very high guestimate I feel. Lets assume Coburn gets a 1.5 million dollar a year deal, (which is slightly high as well). This is a total cap hit of 10 million dollars (assuming these players have breakout years and get paid.) FIGURES ARE HIGH!!!
They most likely will recieve..
Carter- $4 mill
Richards- $2.5 Mill
Coburn- $1 mill
Totalling about 7.5 we will say 8 million.
Not to mention our own farm system players such as Claude Giroux, James vanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie who are expected to crack the lineup in the next few years, who would cost about half a mill. I think you can count on seeing Downie, Parent, and Picard in the 2008-2009 lineup. Between Downie, Picard and Parent they will be a hit of around 2 million leaving 2.233 mill to sign another d-man and a 4th line center. This is pretty tight but with the cap increase and the likelihood that Richards, Carter, Coburn will not be a combined cap hit of 10 million, rather about 2-2.5 mill less... we are fine.
With that scenario..
Gagne-Briere-Knuble
Upshall-Carter-Lupul
Kapanen-Richards-Hartnell
Eager-______-Downie
Timonen-Kukkonen
Coburn-Picard
Parent-______
Biron
Niittymaki
I found it very interesting to actually break down the numbers and see what they will be working with, since all the fans across the league continue to bash us on the money spending we did this off season... To me the Flyers are in Tremendous shape going into next season as well.. might even have room for another Defensive signing if the Cap increases. Adam Foote? Lindstrom? Teppo Numinen? Wade Redden? Dan Boyle? Take a shot at boyle now.. Umberger/Gauthier for Boyle... (Kukkonen/Boyle) wishfull thinking?
Do Flyers fans feel the same way? Have the Flyers done a very good job in securing up the players they want? Do we feel next year we will be sweating bullets come free agency period or will we be sitting back relaxed knowing Holmgren already signed our RFA because he doesn't let the league determine what he pays his players. And just kind of wondering in the back of our heads.. will homer pull some more magic this year?
I highly doubt we will be sweating the Drury, Briere, and Vanek bullets next season. Should be a very smooth process, in which I will be sitting back drinking beers by my pool.
All salary numbers from http://www.nhlnumbers.com/phi.html great site.
Players Under Contract
Offense- 8 Players at 24.137 cap hit
Gagne, Briere, Knuble, Upshall, Lupul, Hartnell, Kapanen, Eager
Defense- 5 players at 16.305 cap hit
Timonen, Kukkonen, (Rathje, Hatcher, Gauthier =9.1 million)
Goalies- 4.725 cap hit
Nitty, Biron
Total Cap hit- $45.167
Minus (9.1 mill)= $36.067
RFA: Carter, Richards, Umberger, Ruzicka, Coburn, Picard, Jones
UFA: Smith
Without a Cap increase and the assumed departure of Rathje, Hatcher, and Gauthier that leaves the flyers with $14.233 under the current NHL cap. This is an assumed departure, however, I can't see Homer keeping any of them around much longer, especially with the young D talent we have and if it means we lose carter, richards, or coburn. Theres no telling on the increase so lets stick with the current figure and simply just round down to 14 million.
14 million dollars to sign 3 Centers, 1 winger, and 4 Defensive players.
Do we feel this is enough money?
Lets highball and assume Carter scores 35+ goals this season and gets a nice $5 million a year deal. Lets also assume Richards receives say 3.5 million a year deal, which is a very high guestimate I feel. Lets assume Coburn gets a 1.5 million dollar a year deal, (which is slightly high as well). This is a total cap hit of 10 million dollars (assuming these players have breakout years and get paid.) FIGURES ARE HIGH!!!
They most likely will recieve..
Carter- $4 mill
Richards- $2.5 Mill
Coburn- $1 mill
Totalling about 7.5 we will say 8 million.
Not to mention our own farm system players such as Claude Giroux, James vanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie who are expected to crack the lineup in the next few years, who would cost about half a mill. I think you can count on seeing Downie, Parent, and Picard in the 2008-2009 lineup. Between Downie, Picard and Parent they will be a hit of around 2 million leaving 2.233 mill to sign another d-man and a 4th line center. This is pretty tight but with the cap increase and the likelihood that Richards, Carter, Coburn will not be a combined cap hit of 10 million, rather about 2-2.5 mill less... we are fine.
With that scenario..
Gagne-Briere-Knuble
Upshall-Carter-Lupul
Kapanen-Richards-Hartnell
Eager-______-Downie
Timonen-Kukkonen
Coburn-Picard
Parent-______
Biron
Niittymaki
I found it very interesting to actually break down the numbers and see what they will be working with, since all the fans across the league continue to bash us on the money spending we did this off season... To me the Flyers are in Tremendous shape going into next season as well.. might even have room for another Defensive signing if the Cap increases. Adam Foote? Lindstrom? Teppo Numinen? Wade Redden? Dan Boyle? Take a shot at boyle now.. Umberger/Gauthier for Boyle... (Kukkonen/Boyle) wishfull thinking?
Do Flyers fans feel the same way? Have the Flyers done a very good job in securing up the players they want? Do we feel next year we will be sweating bullets come free agency period or will we be sitting back relaxed knowing Holmgren already signed our RFA because he doesn't let the league determine what he pays his players. And just kind of wondering in the back of our heads.. will homer pull some more magic this year?
I highly doubt we will be sweating the Drury, Briere, and Vanek bullets next season. Should be a very smooth process, in which I will be sitting back drinking beers by my pool.
All salary numbers from http://www.nhlnumbers.com/phi.html great site.
let me get back to you on this, when I have time to work things out in my head and leave you with some pros and cons, options and other options....
I agree, the Flyers have positioned themselves very well, as there will almost certainly be an increase in the cap next year. The problem will come with the next work stoppage in four years. Expect Gary Bettman to lose his job, and the NHL will finally realize they are a niche league and will probably contract to 24 or 26 teams, with a soft cap more like the NBAs. Either way, as long as the Flyers are owned by Comcast and run by Ed Snider, money will never be an object to success in Philly. Kudos to Paul Holmgren for a fine job so far this summer, and if he can somehow land Teemu Selanne, the Flyers could challenge in the East
If they get Selanne they will be a threat in the East, for sure
things could tighten up if the flyers look like a cup contender this yr or next. that's when that "last piece of the puzzle" trade could bring in a plyr whose contract skews the whole situation. it's really a balancing act. these teams need to draft well or they will get caught buying vets and filling up their 3rd and 4th lines w/ minor leaguers.then there's the aspect of the RFA mkt where rival teams force others to pay more w/ an offer sheet. the days of the unwritten rules for personnel are over. the chess game has begun
Figure Carter and Richards’s resigns anywhere between 1M - 3M/yr more than this year’s salary. Figure Coburn resigns anywhere between 700K - 1M/yr more than this years salary.Figure Picard resigns anywhere between 500K - 1M/yr more than this years salary.Figure Umberger is traded, Smith is a UFA and Gauthier's and Hatcher's status is to be determined.The salary increase for new contracts to Carter, Richards, Coburn and Picard ranges from 3.2M/yr – 8M/yr. Taking the mean average of this range give about 6M/yr. Subtract Smith’s salary and its about 4M/yr. Picard replaces Smith, so there’s no loss in personnel there. The cap may very well increase by 4M/yr, but if not, then one of Gauthier or Hatcher may have to be dealt. Its doable, and that’s the main thing. There’s room to work. We should be fine.
We are fine, just don't expect any big signings next summer...