Stanley Cup Finals Game 2 Draftkings Preview
Game 1 is over, the Lightning won 5-1 and the guys who were supposed to handle their business, handled their business. Nikita Kucherov had 2 goals and 1 assist, Brayden Point had 3 assists and Adrei Vasilevski only allowed 1 goal on 19 shots. Meanwhile Carey Price had his worst outing of the post season allowing 5 goals on 27 shots and while the Canadiens played tough they just couldn’t get anything going against the Bolts. A key note about tonight’s game is that top 6 forward Alex Killorn is out with a leg injury tonight, that means someone from Tampa is going to have to take his place on the second line and the top power play unit. Anthony Cirelli already centers the second line that features Stamkos ($8,800) and Killorn, and is a likely option to replace Killorn on the power play. Checking in at only $5400 on Draftkings, Cirelli is definitely a value play and with the continued success of Kucherov ($10,400) and Point ($10,200), Cirelli might still come in low owned despite the cheap price tag and potential increased usage. Cirelli’s ice time share of 27.5% is slightly lower than Kucherov’s 29.8% and is better than Stamkos’ 26%. He also checks in just behind Point with 61 shot attempts. Those are nice numbers to take along with the $3000-$5000+ discount off the Tampa stars with more name recognition. Cirelli would fit in nicely if we believe that the Habs can even the series and if they are going to even the series it’s going to require a masterful performance by Carey Price.
Price is coming off a terrible showing, however this a guy who has been the face of the franchise in one of the most intense hockey markets for over a decade and one of the best goalies in the league over the same time frame. It’s taken Price 14 seasons to reach the Stanley Cup Finals, this man isn’t going down easy. Price has given up 4 or more goals just three times this postseason in the games that followed Montreal is 2-1 and Price has a goals against average of 2.33 in those games. For Montreal to stay in this series they’re going to need Price to steal a game or probably two for them, this is one of those games. Carey Price is my preferred captain option for game 2, $14,400 is expensive but I think the potential payoff is worth it, I expect Price to not only get the win but hit the 35+ save bonus with a shot at the shutout as Montreal steals this game 2-0 or 2-1. Since we’re paying up for an expensive captain tonight we’re going to have to watch our budget that’s where guys like the aforementioned Anthony Cirelli comes in.
Part of a winning formula for GPPs (Grand Prize Pools) is being a little different, I emphasize a LITTLE different, we’re not going to go start a bunch of 4th liners just because nobody else is going to do it. What we do is think through game script, find what we believe to be likely to happen, determine how different that overall view of the game is compared to what the rest of the field is thinking and build our lineups from there. The Carey Price captain option is probably already making us slightly different from the rest of the field, so putting Cirelli in there for the savings and eating a little ownership doesn’t bother me. Building the rest of the line up is the challenge, Montreal gets scoring from up and down their lineup so getting as many of their top options is the way we’re going to try and fill out this lineup. Brendan Gallagher ($7,200) is a great choice for the Montreal part of this roster, he’s been underperforming on the scoresheet but all of his underlying usage is good. He plays on the top line and a power play unit, he leads the team in shot attempts (85) and shots on goal (45) and is tied for the team lead for combined high and medium danger scoring chances (23), getting all that at only $7,200 is the exact type of deal we’re looking for to build around Price.
With three remaining roster spots left we’re at a cross roads, if we truly believe that Price is going to carry Montreal to victory tonight then it would make sense to full fade the Lightning, but after getting burnt by Point and Kucherov in game 1 should we really risk that again? Yes. It all goes back to what our belief of the game script is, we’re building this lineup believing Price shuts down the Lightning, players can’t get us any points if they don’t score any goals. However a 5-1 lineup in favor of Montreal would be different but might be a case of us going too far off the beaten path, a 4-2 lineup where you stack Cirelli with Stamkos, Hedman ($9,000) or Tyler Johnson ($2,600) would be a safer route to go. But if you choose to go with 5-1 Canadiens lineup I wouldn’t fault you, you would definitely have a different lineup than almost everyone else and you have a lot of options to choose from with Danault ($5,600), Suzuki ($8,200), Caulfield ($8,000), Weber ($7,600), Petry ($6,800), Chariot ($6,000). Either way this game runs through Price and the Canadiens even the series.