DelcoDave

"Daily Fantasy Sports Hockey Strategist"

Lincoln, NE • United States •

NHL Slate 3 DFS Breakdown

Last night was a good example of our thought process of chasing volume and opportunities being correct but not delivering the desired results. We targeted the Montreal, Toronto game and the Vancouver, Edmonton game, despite the lackluster scores for both of those games I still believe they were the correct games to target. The Oilers and Canucks combined for 73 shots on the goal, the most of any game on the slate and there was 7 total power plays in the game, lots of shots and scoring opportunities just not the results we wanted with a 3-2 final in a shootout. The Habs and Leafs combined for the third most shots on goal on the night, 62 and a combined 7 power play opportunities as well, a 2-1 score is not what we wanted but the scoring environment was there. If we continue to find the correct game environments the results will follow over the long haul. Hockey season is a marathon, so let’s remain patient and focus on the correct concepts and thought process to achieve the results we want long term.

New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes

The first game to target tonight is one that I expect to be a surprise shootout. The Carolina Hurricanes finished last year ranked seventh in expected goals for (xGF) 123.1, fourth in scoring chances for (SCF) 776 and fifth in high danger chances for (HDF) 205 to go with the second best power play, 25.61%. Despite their defensive reputation the New York Islanders ranked in the bottom third of scoring chances against (SCA) 670 and just middle of the pack in high danger chances against (HDA) 157. New York will bring plenty of their own offense to the game too, ranking fifth in xGF 125.6. Teuvo Teravainen ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD) is one of my favorite plays on both sites. Teravainen scored 5 goals and 15 points in 21 games last year, he’s going to log top six minutes and has a prominent role on that aforementioned second ranked power play. Andrei Svechnikov ($4,500 DK, $7,100 FD) is brutally underpriced on Draftkings but slightly overpriced on FanDuel. Svechnikov is going to have a similar role to Teravainen, he’ll be playing on the second line and top powerplay unit, he’s too much of a value to leave him out of lineups on DK and because of his elevated price tag on FanDuel he makes for a solid tournament play due to the potential for lower ownership. On the Islanders side of things Kyle Palmieri ($4,100 DK, $4,400 FD) is expected to be one of their top line wingers and has a safe role on their power play, his sub 5k price tag on both sites and his excellent role make an excellent value play to create cap relief for your line ups. On the backend Noah Dobson ($2,700 DK, $4,200 FD) scored over 20 points last year, is slated to play top 4 minutes and quarterback the second power play unit for the Islanders, he’s priced fairly on FD but is very underpriced on DK making him a value play for cash lineups there and a tournament play on FD.

Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres

The second game to target I think is going to be more lopsided and most of the offense will funnel from one team, the Montreal Canadiens take on the Buffalo Sabres in a game they will probably win by three goals. Having dealt with the drama surrounding star center Jack Eichel all off season the Sabres enter this game undermanned and having ranked 22nd in SCA 696 and 25th in HDA 205, also one of their best defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is day-to-day but is expected to play. The Canadiens bring an offense that ranked sixth in SCF 752 and third in HDF 216. While Montreal’s power play was only middle of the pack last year (17th 19.21%) playing the Sabres was great for any team to get their power play going as they ranked 26th with a penalty kill percentage of 77.70%. Brendan Gallagher ($3,400 DK, $5,500 FD) presents great value on DK and is fairly priced on FD, Gallagher ranked fifth on the team last year in shots on goal with 106 and averaged nearly two minutes of power play time a game. Jeff Petry ($5,600 DK, $5,100 FD) once again has the power play role all to himself with Shea Weber still out. Petry finished second last year on the team with 128 shots on goal and third in blocked shots with 60, priced reasonably on both sites Petry has a great floor/ceiling combo in a game the Canadiens should dominate. This is normally when I would present a player or two from the opposing team that you could play in the game, but Buffalo is in year number 353 of their rebuild and they still seem to be fielding a JV hockey team so I’m going to highlight a third Canadiens player you can pair with Petry and Gallagher for an onslaught game stack. Tyler Toffoli ($7,100 DK, $6,300 FD) lead the Canadiens in shots on goals 158, average power play time per game 2:24 and starts 58% of his shifts in the offensive zone, the match up is great, his price is reasonable on DK and an excellent value on FD, don’t over think this one Toffoli is a great play tonight.

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