archromat

"Quasi GM"

Moncton, NB • Canada • 37 Years Old • Male

2016 UFAs Movable at Draft?

This year's draft looks particularly strong; the free agent pool looks exactly the opposite of that. But next year's free agents will make you salivate. Now, more than ever, teams are starting to prevent their players from bolting for free, since it damages their franchise too much when it does happen. Nobody wants to have the forward core of the NJ Devils right now.

What does this mean this year? Well, if other GMs have taken after Shero's example with Jordan Staal, some players might be made available in case they don't desire signing an extension. You never know, Jakub Voracek might have nightmares about the liberty bell and decide that an extension is the last of his desires!... okay maybe not, but stranger trades have happened in hockey.

What are the odds any of these 12 guys get moved, though? I'd say less than 50%, but things are changing a little in the NHL. Some players are beginning to demand insane contracts (hello Kane, Toews, Subban), and in case any of this juicy class wants to tell their agent to pinch every penny and GMs/owners aren't feeling it, these players could be packing their bags after an unfriendly phone call and worrying about the wrath of their girlfriends and wives.

So here are the twelve.

12. Loui Ericsson - RW Boston .59 PPG last three seasons (.58 this season)

Ericsson left Dallas after a few very good seasons and a mediocre season. It's fair to say that Boston expected a lot more out of this winger, but he's still a solid second line player and could even climb back into a first line role on the right team. As it stands, he's a second-line winger, and could draw some interest. Sweeney has the chance to put his print on the franchise right away.

Chance moved at draft: 5%
Chance moved this summer: 50%

11. Andrew Ladd - LW Winnipeg .78 PPG last three seasons (.77 this season)

Ladd's name is not often heard, but he's quietly a first line winger, durable, and he brings leadership. Chances are, Winnipeg is going to lock him up long term on a pretty extension since he's their captain, but suppose he doesn't re-sign, Winnipeg is sure to field a lot of interest. Oh, and he's won two Stanley Cups already. Pay the Ladd.

Chance moved at draft: 1%
Chance moved this summer: 2%

10. Ryan Kesler - C Anaheim .59 PPG last three seasons (.58 this season)

Former Selke winner Ryan Kesler probably likes it in Anaheim, but in case contract talks don't go so well, Anaheim has plenty of depth to compensate and might move him to another team for more young assets and continue to strengthen the talent in their franchise. Anaheim also isn't a team that'll let a free agent walk, so this summer could be interesting between these two sides, since I'm sure Anaheim doesn't want to pay him more than 5.5M/y longterm given his questionable durability. Grabbing an eye and falling easy won't work in contract negotiations.

Chance moved at draft: 3%
Chance moved this summer: 7%

9. Dustin Byfuglien - D Winnipeg .68 PPG last three seasons (.65 this season)

Byfuglien has had ups and downs in Winnipeg, and his name has been thrown around in rumour mills for some time. He's one of the most likely to be moved either in the draft or in the summer. His production warrants a pretty big contract, if teams are not quite sure what his identity is. Big Buf make big check?

Chance moved at draft: 15%
Chance moved this summer: 25%

8. Anze Kopitar - C Los Angeles .85 PPG last three seasons (.81 this season)

It's hard to imagine Kopitar leaving a team he's won two Stanley Cups with and it's even harder to imagine Los Angeles not throwing a bunch of cash at one of the cornerstones of their franchise. He's 99% not likely to be moved, but you never know.

Chance moved at draft: 1%
Chance moved this summer: 1%

7. Jiri Hudler - C Calgary .81 PPG last three seasons (.97 this season)

People questioned the amount of money Calgary threw at Hudler three years ago; I'm pretty sure they were answered after Hudler blew up this season playing with young guns Monahan and Gaudreau. However, a year removed from UFA, he's going to bring a lot of leverage to his contract. I don't think, by any stretch, Calgary moves him, and would rather talk contract extension come December/January. Hopefully his last name is not a cross between hoodwink and hustler.

Chance moved at draft: 1%
Chance moved this summer: 1%

6. Mark Giordano - D Calgary .64 PPG last three seasons (.79 this season)

Giordano's virtually come out of nowhere to become one of the best defensemen in the league, which made his injury that much more devastating for Calgary in the playoffs (they still made the 2nd round). He's older than you might expect, a late bloomer like Rafalski, but he's also somebody Calgary will have to make a choice on this season. Like Hudler, Calgary will probably talk extension mid-season, maybe even this summer. What would Mark Giordano do?

Chance moved at draft: 1%
Chance moved this summer: 1%

5. Brent Seabrook - D Chicago .44 PPG last three seasons (.38 this season)

Seabrook is one of the best first pairing d-men in the league and might well be the secret to Keith's success, but cap-strapped Chicago will have a choice to make on this d-man to see if they can keep him. Seabrook has a lot of leverage for a good contract, but does he really want to leave one of the best teams in the league? Not likely.

Chance moved at draft: 3%
Chance moved this summer: 7%

4. Milan Lucic - LW Boston .63 PPG last three season (.54 this season)

Lucic has been part of rumour mills for a while, but are the talks really warranted? He's a top 3 power forward in the league and his mean streak brings a lot of attrition to a wanting team, especially one wanting a better performance in the playoffs. Some might call him overrated, but if he's available, at least 20 other teams are calling. Are Boston really ready to move him, though? Just a warning, as many players will tell you, he's hard to move.

Chance moved at draft: 7%
Chance moved this summer: 10%

3. Ryan O'Reilly - C Colorado .73 PPG last three seasons (.67 this season)

He's had two separate contract situations with Colorado and next year, this young center could walk away from the franchise and leave them with absolutely nothing... just like Stastny did this year. They can't afford to let that happen again, so expect more O'Reilly chat this summer. What's so great about him? He's one of the league leaders in take-aways and he doesn't take too many penalties. Colorado has some thinking to do this summer.

Chance moved at draft: 35%
Chance moved this summer: 50%

2. Jakub Voracek - RW Philadelphia .89 PPG last three seasons (.99 this season)

Philadelphia had a year to forget, but Voracek had a year to remember. Going neck and neck with Crosby in the art ross race all season, Voracek's suddenly got a ton of cache to talk himself up to an 8M+/y contract. The Flyers are quite likely to pay the man, so I don't expect him to go anywhere. Jakub Score-a-check.

Chance moved at draft: 5% (Cuz it's Philadelphia)
Chance moved this summer: 3%

1. Steven Stamkos - C Tampa Bay 1.01 PPG last three seasons (.88 this season)

This is perhaps the most interesting situation coming this summer. Many people think, "Oh, the Lightning would never let Stamkos walk, they'll pay him 10.5M/y just like Toews/Kane", but there's a huge problem with that: Steve Yzerman. Yzerman has already expressed his interest to run Tampa Bay according to a Detroit Red Wings model, which means he's not going to want to throw all the franchise's money at three players. Nobody on Detroit is paid more than 7.5m/y, and I'm pretty sure Yzerman doesn't want to pay any player more than 8m/y.

So now we got a tale of two Steves.

Stamkos has to make a decision as a result of this interesting situation. He can play for a pretty healthy franchise right now for 7.5M/y over 8 years, or he can get traded to another franchise to get paid the 10M. If the owners try to step in to pay Stamkos, Yzerman might not last much longer in TB... and he's pretty much the best thing to happen to that franchise, especially if they walk away with a cup this year.

His name will be much hotter come the draft than most people will realize.

Chance moved at draft: 10%
Chance moved this summer: 33%

(since I can't post below:
1. Bob McKenzie has reported otherwise (in terms of Ryan O'Reilly and long term extensions) and he's essentially the best source in hockey. See June 5th twitter.

2. Instead of saying: "Low, low, super low, ultra low", I used a better method to quantify the relative likelihood of a player being moved so that you can compare that status to someone else's status. From my arbitrary percentages, you can see that I think Lucic is less likely to be moved at the draft than he is in the summer, but he's more likely to be moved at the draft than Brent Seabrook.)

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