When it comes to fantasy hockey drafts, the temptation is to pull out last year's stats and pick the guy who had the most points. A lot of bad assumptions go into that philosophy. For one thing, you ultimately end up with a host of one-hit wonders and miss out on the rising players. We've assembled here a list of players that peaked last year or had a fluke of a great season. These chumps will get drafted far earlier than they should. Don't get caught up in the hype. Sit back and let the less-informed GM's waste a pick, while you go for value.
- Cammalleri posted enormous numbers last season, playing along side Iginla. He won't have anywhere near that talent playing on the disfunctional Canadiens next season. If you were able to cash in on his success in 08, it's time to sell high and watch this stock correct itself down to the 70 point range.
- Carter enjoyed an amazing breakout year in 2008 and even challenged for the goal scoring title. But was this an indication of things to come, or another Brian Gionta? Best guess is somewhere in between. Carter disappeared in the playoffs a bit. Expect him to drop off a little from last season into to 30 goal range.
- If you draft off last year's stats alone, you're going to be that sucker picking Elias way too high. He's still a fine player, but there's no chance he's going to finish with a point-a-game again in 2009. He's past his prime and has a history of inconsistency. Steer clear and let somebody else make the mistake early on.
- Richards built his reputation on one great season and a Conn Smythe trophy. Beyond that, he's been a consistent disappointment in terms of fantasy production. Sure he may be overlooked due to his injury last season, but he may also be overlooked, because there about 80 better options out there. Don't believe the hype!
Martin St. Louis
- St. Louis is a tough book to read. The last three seasons have produced point totals of 102, 83 and 80, so he should be considered a fantasy star. But something just doesn't feel right. Maybe it's his team. Don't put too much faith in him putting up another 80 point season in 2009.
- White had a breakout season in 2008. Another word for it may be "fluke". With new talent arriving and emerging in Atlanta next season, White should slide back down the depth chart and find himself returning to mediocrity.
- Over the past five or so seasons, Bergeron has been drafted in the middle of the pack. If that happens this year, you should laugh and point. Bergeron won't crack 30 points this season.
- It would be a mistake to think Markov will come anywhere near the numbers he put up last season. Registering 64 points on a lousy Canadiens squad was the highlight of Markov's career. Expect him to drop off by at least 15 points in 2009.
- Another oldy-but not so good any more. It would be a good season if he finishes with more than 30 points. An even bigger challenge would be for Schneider to play in 70 or more games. There are too many better options out there.
- What a shame. Marty got better. Clemmensen actually was in the top 10 at the all-star break, only to lose his job to the legend. With a new start in Florida, it's going to be more of the same, as Vokoun will occupy the net most nights. Ignore the numbers and ignore Mr. Clemmensen on your draft list.
- DiPietro is supposed to be a great goalie, and he surely will be passed on by many GMs. Make sure you are in that crowd. The Islanders are a train wreck and there are no guarantees that he will play consistently after so much time off, if he plays at all. After all, they signed 2 more starting goalies this summer for a reason. Steer clear. Be warned.
- Despite his high win total, Kiprusoff's vital stats have slid consistently for the last 4 seasons. Having Sutter back behind the bench may bring some sanity back to the Calgary blueline, which may give him a boost. So, don't write him off, but don't overrate him either.
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