Why Derek Roy is worth 3.5 million.

Posted 11:46 PM ET | Comments 11

A lot of people around the league are waiting with fainted breath as arbitration hearings begin this week.

Among the big names up for arbitration are Sabres forward Derek Roy. Roy, coming off a 63 pt season last year, will assuredly get a nice raise from the 650,000 he made last season.

But what are players like him really worth?

Personally, I feel Roy is worth somewhere in the 3.5-4 million range. If Chris Drury, who had 69 points last season, can command a 7 million dollar salary, then Roy should surely get something in the 4 mil range.

And he is well worth it. The economics of the league warrant that. 60 point scorers are now 3-4 million dollar players. The same will likely happen for Michael Ryder in Montreal, while Mike Camalleri in LA will likely head into the 5 mil range after a very quiet 80 pt season last year.

The contracts of Scott Gomez, Ryan Smyth and the former Sabres captains have made this possible for smaller name guys to "break the bank". But in reality, most are now getting paid somewhere in the area of fair. While others could be looked at as solid steals.

If Roy were to get or sign for something in the 4 mil range long term, the deal could prove to be a steal by the end of the second year. With the departures of the captains, Roy will see top flight ice time, especially if he continues to center Thomas Vanek.

The deals we see this week could very well prove to be the steals of next season. And for those upset about what Derek Roy may get, just think. By next year, this could be a steal.

Filed Under: Sabres Free Agency Derek Roy Arbitration

Jsaquella

July 24, 2007 12:19 AM ET | Delete
Roy is remarkably comparable to Florida's Nate Horton in Points, PPGs, games and other stats, and Horton just signed for $4mm per year. My guess is He'll get anywhere between $4mm-$5mm

Inferno31

July 24, 2007 12:32 AM ET | Delete
Hasn't buffalo learnt to sign its up and coming talent to longer deals, they lost briere and drury by not making an offer soon enough, I'd give roy a couple years at anywhere between 4-5 mil. Might look steep now, but in a couple years he'll be a bargin. With the departure of drury and briere, he'll have a bigger role on buffalo, and I think those point totals will go up as well. He's a great overall player.

In Miller we Trust

July 24, 2007 12:58 AM ET | Delete
Keep in mind that max is making under 4 million. Roy doesn't bring the faceoff talent, defensive ability (not a knock on his defense, which is actually very good) or leadership of Drury. To compare the two based on point totals is way off, since it wasn't point totals that got drury his deal.That said, if we can get him on a 5 year deal, 4 million per is a risk worth taking, especially if he continues centering Vanek and Max or Stafford. Notice that I said over a five year deal. A one year deal for that is only worth it if we extend it. If it goes to arbitration, the Sabres will lose. That's the real lesson from last year (Dumont, Briere)

steal_your_faceoff

July 24, 2007 8:19 AM ET | Delete
Nice post CaptP. I agree that the mid-level, very solid player is now reaping riches never imagined - oh wait...we had that lockout. Roy is a very capable centerman and should provide Vanek with good scoring opportunities for years to come. He is worth what the Sabres feel his long term value to be and I agree that to be around 5 million -that is IF they sign him long term. Not doing so would be another in a series of mistakes that would allow good, young and relatively inexpensive talent to walk from Buffalo. You need to lock him up and hope the upside continues - otherwise he could be a Ranger, Bruin, King, Flyer...you get the picture. Nice post.

Max to the House

July 24, 2007 9:34 AM ET | Delete
Completely agree. We need to lock this guy up now because paying him 4-5/per for one season is not worth it. We need him for the long haul and this team has lost enough large pieces already.

DZim1127

July 24, 2007 10:28 AM ET | Delete
Look for 4 years at $18 million or 5 years at $21 million

rapperray

July 24, 2007 2:09 PM ET | Delete
Are you kidding me? This is a guy who spent more time whining about penalties than staying on his feet and playing. And since when is 63 points some sort of super feat? He is a 1.75 mil player. The Sabres mistake is waiting to negotiate so they get pinned in a corner and wind up overpaying average players.

redlighting