The 2007 UFA Frenzy Revisited
Posted 4:49 PM ET | Comments 14
In this blog we'll go back to this time last year and get some hindsight analysis of the UFA signings from last season.
But first.
It should be noted that the UFA process is not a way in which GM's look to find bargains or good prices on players. It's an all-out bidding war for the services of players who have earned the right to seek "fair" market value for their work. Many contracts that will be signed in the UFA process will be deemed too heavy, but that's the nature of the beast when it comes to bidding against several other GM's.
In the new salary-capped, post-lockout NHL, Stanley Cup winning teams are not bought. They are a combination of a few superstars, role players, and young players with cheap contracts who fill key roles. I don't ever expect a team that builds from the free agent market to win, because too many "overpaid" players can really handcuff your franchise. That said, the right signing of a free agent player could be the missing link that puts your franchise over the top.
UFA's are going to be overpaid. The key is to overpay the right guy. I know, easier said than done, right?
LOOKING BACK... 2007 REVISITED
The Good...
Brian Rafalski, New Jersey to Detroit, 5 yr. 30 million
A great addition by the Wings to replace Mathieu Schneider. They got younger and more offensive with the move, making their already lethal break-out, just that much more lethal. Although not a dominating force, he's the coveted "puck-moving" defenseman that so many teams look for.
Roman Hamrlik, Calgary to Montreal, 4 yr. 22 million
I was slightly skeptical of this one. Not that I didn't enjoy Hammer's time in Calgary, but because he got injured easily and when he would return from injury, he was never the same. And 4 years is a lot of term... but Montreal proved to be a great fit for Hammer. He didn't have to go out and sacrifice his body to make big hits and play physical, he just had to play his game. Sure, it's a huge contract, but it was worth it for the Habs for the 07-08 at the very least. Next year, this could be one we're talking about for the opposite reason.
The Okay...
Daniel Briere, Buffalo to Philadelphia, 8 yr. 52 million
Briere can affect hockey games. He can score goals if left open. He racked up 31 goals and 72 points; solid numbers. But let's face it, this is a superstar contract. Is Daniel Briere a superstar? Would you put him up with the likes of Vincent Lecavalier, Jarome Iginla or Sidney Crosby? Absolutely not. The reason I never put him in the "Bad" category is because of his offensive production in the regular season and first round of the playoffs... but his disappearing act against the Pens is something that I expect Flyers fans to have to get used to. He's not the guy that will lead you to a Stanley Cup; thankfully for the Flyers, that man may actually have shown himself this season though... Mike Richards. But now that Mike Richards is doing what Briere was brought in to do; his 52 million dollar contract is pretty heavy for a guy who's not even his own team's best player.
Cory Sarich, Tampa Bay to Calgary, 5 yr. 18 million
I really think that Sutter could have gotten Sarich for less and really wish that he would have. He was overrated in Tampa and doesn't bring much else than size to the table. But paired with Robyn Regehr they're one of the best shut-down tandems in the league. Of course, I give a ton of that credit to Regehr who constantly makes his partners better for playing with him. (see Jordan Leopold also).
Scott Hannan, San Jose to Colorado, 4 yr. 18 million
Hannan was coveted by a lot of GMs when he was available and for good reason, he's a very solid stay-at-home defenseman. He had a very off year but I don't expect that to become the norm for Hannan.
Paul Kariya, Nashville to St. Louis, 3 yr. 18 million
It seemed about the right price to pay for Kariya and the term is certainly favourable. His 65 points is a big downgrade from his time in Nashville but is still fairly strong. The only reason this isn't in the "bad" category is because of the team he had around him.
The Bad...
Scott Gomez, New Jersey to New York, 7 yr. 51.5 million
Chris Drury, Buffalo to New York, 5 yr. 35.25 million
Maybe that's what it took to get these guys to the Rangers. But I doubt it. For Gomez, a guy who averages just over 60 points per year, it seemed a little steep. But we'll see what happens when he has Jagr on his right side and Drury playing on the next line... a fearsome one-two punch, right? Wrong. Jagr had his worst season since he was a rookie and Gomez' first half was horrific. Drury is good on faceoffs and is a great penalty killer, but that's not worth 7 mil per to me. With the possibility of Jagr not coming back are we to expect them to "bounce back"? Personally, I think they both performed exactly to expectation, which is why I ask if it's worth the cash? They're both glorified 2nd line centres. Not unlike Daymond Langkow, who is going to sign for 4-5 mil per with a shorter term. Proof of why building from within, whether through trades and drafts, is a much better way to go.
Sheldon Souray, Montreal to Edmonton, 5 yr. 27 million
He spent so much time injured it was hard to get a good guage on Souray. But they paid a lot of money for a slap-shot. 3 goals in a quarter-season and he was well on his way to equalling his -28 total that he accumulated with the Habs the year before. He's a big body who was clearly better suited for Eastern Conference hockey. Although paired with Lubomir Visnovsky on the power-play next season could be a scary situation! Still, Souray would have to play more than 25 games next year for that to be a factor.
Ryan Smyth, Edmonton to Colorado, 5 yr. 31.25 million
I couldn't have been happier to see Smyth leave Edmonton, only to have him stay in the NW. Having scored 30+ goals in his last 3 seasons, the Avs figured to get at least that from Smyth last season. What they found out is that Smyth isn't a natural goal-scorer. At least half of the goals he scores are from standing in the crease and bashing at the puck until it goes over the line. Sure, he and Tomas Holmstrom have been valuable playing that role, but Holmstrom also makes just over 2 million. Smyth got hurt and even when he was in the lineup he wasn't nearly as valuable as a 6 million dollar guy should be, he was only on pace for just over 20 goals.
Jason Blake, NYI to Toronto, 5 yr. 20 million
Blake was lucky enough to have a career season in a contract year. Something that has paid big dividends for a lot of players in every professional sport. Unfortunately, he had to battle some illness, but if you are able to dress for games, clearly you're healthy enough to play... and 15 goals isn't worth 4 mil per. The reality is he was one of the only options on a bad Islander team, and other than his final season on Long Island, he was a 20 goal 55 point guy; and that's probably where expectations should lie for Blake. Lucky for him, he found a GM who happened to have a knack for handing out bad contracts.
Michael Nylander, NYR to Washington, 4 yr. 19.5 million
Was hurt for most of the season and was probably replaced by *Niklas Backstrom as the top centre. The Capitals made their biggest strides with Nylander out of the lineup.
Todd Bertuzzi, Detroit to Anaheim, 2 yr. 8 million
Bought out by Burke, enough said. (although I watched a game at the pond last year in which the Getzlaf/Bertuzzi line was an absolute force all night long. They were scary good)
Michael Handzus, Chicago to Los Angeles, 4 yr. 16 million
Injuries played a big role in this centres 2006 season and he was still given a monster contract that the Kings are going to be stuck with for a while. He'll be a strong candidate for a buy-out after this season. He only scored 7 goals and 21 points last year. For 4 million, he may be the biggest bust of all.
The Restricted...
Dustin Penner, Anaheim to Edmonton, 5 yr. 21.5 million and 1st/2nd/3rd which Burke then turned into 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, following several trades... they were... Jake Gardiner, Nicolas Deschamps, Eric O'Dell and Justin Shultz.
All of that for the right to give a 2nd-year pro a huge contract. Penner set a new career high in points with 47 but was given double the playing time and saw 1st line power-play. He scored 23 goals. Time will tell on this one, but Brian Burke sure made the most out of the picks he got from Edmonton. The Oilers could use more production from Penner as well. Kevin Lowe made this deal expecting the Oilers to push for the playoffs and only leave the Ducks with low picks, the Oilers underachieved making their draft picks that much more valuable to the Ducks. The bottom line with making offer sheets to RFA's is that it doesn't make much sense if you are in a rebuilding mode. What you give up in that instance is way too valuable.
I expect much the same out of this years crop. A lot of players are going to take advantage of an open-market bidding war. And if you've visited the new Cap Central on the Hockeybuzz home page, you'll see there are teams with a lot of money to throw around. The problem with that, is the UFA market this year is a step down from last year, and that's not saying much. There's going to be a lot of wasted money and high hopes for teams like Columbus that are hoping to make the playoffs for the first time in their franchises existence.
I am also going to offer my thoughts on some of the big names available this year, but I'll make those in a seperate blog, hopefully I can get it out before tomorrow!
But first.
It should be noted that the UFA process is not a way in which GM's look to find bargains or good prices on players. It's an all-out bidding war for the services of players who have earned the right to seek "fair" market value for their work. Many contracts that will be signed in the UFA process will be deemed too heavy, but that's the nature of the beast when it comes to bidding against several other GM's.
In the new salary-capped, post-lockout NHL, Stanley Cup winning teams are not bought. They are a combination of a few superstars, role players, and young players with cheap contracts who fill key roles. I don't ever expect a team that builds from the free agent market to win, because too many "overpaid" players can really handcuff your franchise. That said, the right signing of a free agent player could be the missing link that puts your franchise over the top.
UFA's are going to be overpaid. The key is to overpay the right guy. I know, easier said than done, right?
LOOKING BACK... 2007 REVISITED
The Good...
Brian Rafalski, New Jersey to Detroit, 5 yr. 30 million
A great addition by the Wings to replace Mathieu Schneider. They got younger and more offensive with the move, making their already lethal break-out, just that much more lethal. Although not a dominating force, he's the coveted "puck-moving" defenseman that so many teams look for.
Roman Hamrlik, Calgary to Montreal, 4 yr. 22 million
I was slightly skeptical of this one. Not that I didn't enjoy Hammer's time in Calgary, but because he got injured easily and when he would return from injury, he was never the same. And 4 years is a lot of term... but Montreal proved to be a great fit for Hammer. He didn't have to go out and sacrifice his body to make big hits and play physical, he just had to play his game. Sure, it's a huge contract, but it was worth it for the Habs for the 07-08 at the very least. Next year, this could be one we're talking about for the opposite reason.
The Okay...
Daniel Briere, Buffalo to Philadelphia, 8 yr. 52 million
Briere can affect hockey games. He can score goals if left open. He racked up 31 goals and 72 points; solid numbers. But let's face it, this is a superstar contract. Is Daniel Briere a superstar? Would you put him up with the likes of Vincent Lecavalier, Jarome Iginla or Sidney Crosby? Absolutely not. The reason I never put him in the "Bad" category is because of his offensive production in the regular season and first round of the playoffs... but his disappearing act against the Pens is something that I expect Flyers fans to have to get used to. He's not the guy that will lead you to a Stanley Cup; thankfully for the Flyers, that man may actually have shown himself this season though... Mike Richards. But now that Mike Richards is doing what Briere was brought in to do; his 52 million dollar contract is pretty heavy for a guy who's not even his own team's best player.
Cory Sarich, Tampa Bay to Calgary, 5 yr. 18 million
I really think that Sutter could have gotten Sarich for less and really wish that he would have. He was overrated in Tampa and doesn't bring much else than size to the table. But paired with Robyn Regehr they're one of the best shut-down tandems in the league. Of course, I give a ton of that credit to Regehr who constantly makes his partners better for playing with him. (see Jordan Leopold also).
Scott Hannan, San Jose to Colorado, 4 yr. 18 million
Hannan was coveted by a lot of GMs when he was available and for good reason, he's a very solid stay-at-home defenseman. He had a very off year but I don't expect that to become the norm for Hannan.
Paul Kariya, Nashville to St. Louis, 3 yr. 18 million
It seemed about the right price to pay for Kariya and the term is certainly favourable. His 65 points is a big downgrade from his time in Nashville but is still fairly strong. The only reason this isn't in the "bad" category is because of the team he had around him.
The Bad...
Scott Gomez, New Jersey to New York, 7 yr. 51.5 million
Chris Drury, Buffalo to New York, 5 yr. 35.25 million
Maybe that's what it took to get these guys to the Rangers. But I doubt it. For Gomez, a guy who averages just over 60 points per year, it seemed a little steep. But we'll see what happens when he has Jagr on his right side and Drury playing on the next line... a fearsome one-two punch, right? Wrong. Jagr had his worst season since he was a rookie and Gomez' first half was horrific. Drury is good on faceoffs and is a great penalty killer, but that's not worth 7 mil per to me. With the possibility of Jagr not coming back are we to expect them to "bounce back"? Personally, I think they both performed exactly to expectation, which is why I ask if it's worth the cash? They're both glorified 2nd line centres. Not unlike Daymond Langkow, who is going to sign for 4-5 mil per with a shorter term. Proof of why building from within, whether through trades and drafts, is a much better way to go.
Sheldon Souray, Montreal to Edmonton, 5 yr. 27 million
He spent so much time injured it was hard to get a good guage on Souray. But they paid a lot of money for a slap-shot. 3 goals in a quarter-season and he was well on his way to equalling his -28 total that he accumulated with the Habs the year before. He's a big body who was clearly better suited for Eastern Conference hockey. Although paired with Lubomir Visnovsky on the power-play next season could be a scary situation! Still, Souray would have to play more than 25 games next year for that to be a factor.
Ryan Smyth, Edmonton to Colorado, 5 yr. 31.25 million
I couldn't have been happier to see Smyth leave Edmonton, only to have him stay in the NW. Having scored 30+ goals in his last 3 seasons, the Avs figured to get at least that from Smyth last season. What they found out is that Smyth isn't a natural goal-scorer. At least half of the goals he scores are from standing in the crease and bashing at the puck until it goes over the line. Sure, he and Tomas Holmstrom have been valuable playing that role, but Holmstrom also makes just over 2 million. Smyth got hurt and even when he was in the lineup he wasn't nearly as valuable as a 6 million dollar guy should be, he was only on pace for just over 20 goals.
Jason Blake, NYI to Toronto, 5 yr. 20 million
Blake was lucky enough to have a career season in a contract year. Something that has paid big dividends for a lot of players in every professional sport. Unfortunately, he had to battle some illness, but if you are able to dress for games, clearly you're healthy enough to play... and 15 goals isn't worth 4 mil per. The reality is he was one of the only options on a bad Islander team, and other than his final season on Long Island, he was a 20 goal 55 point guy; and that's probably where expectations should lie for Blake. Lucky for him, he found a GM who happened to have a knack for handing out bad contracts.
Michael Nylander, NYR to Washington, 4 yr. 19.5 million
Was hurt for most of the season and was probably replaced by *Niklas Backstrom as the top centre. The Capitals made their biggest strides with Nylander out of the lineup.
Todd Bertuzzi, Detroit to Anaheim, 2 yr. 8 million
Bought out by Burke, enough said. (although I watched a game at the pond last year in which the Getzlaf/Bertuzzi line was an absolute force all night long. They were scary good)
Michael Handzus, Chicago to Los Angeles, 4 yr. 16 million
Injuries played a big role in this centres 2006 season and he was still given a monster contract that the Kings are going to be stuck with for a while. He'll be a strong candidate for a buy-out after this season. He only scored 7 goals and 21 points last year. For 4 million, he may be the biggest bust of all.
The Restricted...
Dustin Penner, Anaheim to Edmonton, 5 yr. 21.5 million and 1st/2nd/3rd which Burke then turned into 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, following several trades... they were... Jake Gardiner, Nicolas Deschamps, Eric O'Dell and Justin Shultz.
All of that for the right to give a 2nd-year pro a huge contract. Penner set a new career high in points with 47 but was given double the playing time and saw 1st line power-play. He scored 23 goals. Time will tell on this one, but Brian Burke sure made the most out of the picks he got from Edmonton. The Oilers could use more production from Penner as well. Kevin Lowe made this deal expecting the Oilers to push for the playoffs and only leave the Ducks with low picks, the Oilers underachieved making their draft picks that much more valuable to the Ducks. The bottom line with making offer sheets to RFA's is that it doesn't make much sense if you are in a rebuilding mode. What you give up in that instance is way too valuable.
I expect much the same out of this years crop. A lot of players are going to take advantage of an open-market bidding war. And if you've visited the new Cap Central on the Hockeybuzz home page, you'll see there are teams with a lot of money to throw around. The problem with that, is the UFA market this year is a step down from last year, and that's not saying much. There's going to be a lot of wasted money and high hopes for teams like Columbus that are hoping to make the playoffs for the first time in their franchises existence.
I am also going to offer my thoughts on some of the big names available this year, but I'll make those in a seperate blog, hopefully I can get it out before tomorrow!
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05 Road to the '08 Playoffs
11 Iginla 365, Fleury 364... a monumental night.
16 Questionable Coaching Decisions
24 The Rise of Dion Phaneuf... Norris Trophy Candidate
11 Iginla 365, Fleury 364... a monumental night.
16 Questionable Coaching Decisions
24 The Rise of Dion Phaneuf... Norris Trophy Candidate
03 Flames Halt Losing Streak, Pennant Hopes on the Line
04 Flames Back Into the Playoffs + small Flames rumour.
08 Playoff Predictions... with Cup Winner
10 Night One Recap...
13 Questionable Officiating and The Wings Achilles Heel
14 "
16 The Momentum Roller-coaster, Big Joe Makes an Appearance
22 Two Game 7's, Flames Carry Momentum
23 Hard to Swallow, Flames Tank at the Tank
24 2nd Round Predictions Recap
04 Flames Back Into the Playoffs + small Flames rumour.
08 Playoff Predictions... with Cup Winner
10 Night One Recap...
13 Questionable Officiating and The Wings Achilles Heel
14 "
16 The Momentum Roller-coaster, Big Joe Makes an Appearance
22 Two Game 7's, Flames Carry Momentum
23 Hard to Swallow, Flames Tank at the Tank
24 2nd Round Predictions Recap
03 Triple Overtime Thriller and Ron Wilson
17 Calgary Flames, Pre-draft Off-season Outlook
24 Calgary Flames; UPDATED to Include Darcy Tucker
26 Eriksson, Warrener and Nilson: UPDATED, Vandermeer
30 The 2007 UFA Frenzy Revisited
17 Calgary Flames, Pre-draft Off-season Outlook
24 Calgary Flames; UPDATED to Include Darcy Tucker
26 Eriksson, Warrener and Nilson: UPDATED, Vandermeer
30 The 2007 UFA Frenzy Revisited
02 report: Glencross to sign in Calgary
04 Flames Roster: A New-Look Flashback, Post UFA
07 Bertuzzi in... Nolan Out... Sutter Keeps Busy
16 Calgary Flames Sign Jamie Lundmark, UPDATED Grant Stevenson
28 Calgary Flames: 2+ Over and Sutter's Done?
04 Flames Roster: A New-Look Flashback, Post UFA
07 Bertuzzi in... Nolan Out... Sutter Keeps Busy
16 Calgary Flames Sign Jamie Lundmark, UPDATED Grant Stevenson
28 Calgary Flames: 2+ Over and Sutter's Done?
12 Flames/Leafs Trade Thread: The Gilmour Deal
28 Quick Look Ahead, Oilers and Flames, Battle for the NW?
29 Meszaros to the Bolts... Beneficial to Both Teams
28 Quick Look Ahead, Oilers and Flames, Battle for the NW?
29 Meszaros to the Bolts... Beneficial to Both Teams
06 Calgary Flames: Off-season Outlook
11 Calgary Flames: Time to Steal the Headlines Back?
22 The Sun Shines in Alberta
24 Back to Basics for the Flames? Memorial Cup and Wings/Hawks
28 Calgary, Get Used to Darryl Sutter: Analysis of the GM
11 Calgary Flames: Time to Steal the Headlines Back?
22 The Sun Shines in Alberta
24 Back to Basics for the Flames? Memorial Cup and Wings/Hawks
28 Calgary, Get Used to Darryl Sutter: Analysis of the GM
12 Confession of a Canadian Hockey Fan
17 Calgary Flames: Recent Activity and Addressing the Rumours
23 Calgary Flames: Movin' on Up
17 Calgary Flames: Recent Activity and Addressing the Rumours
23 Calgary Flames: Movin' on Up
05 Ushering in the Quenney Era
08 Week 1 Power Rankings: Top Ten
15 Week 2 Power Rankings: Top Ten
22 Week 3 Power Rankings: Top Ten
23 Flames vs. Oilers... It's On.
08 Week 1 Power Rankings: Top Ten
15 Week 2 Power Rankings: Top Ten
22 Week 3 Power Rankings: Top Ten
23 Flames vs. Oilers... It's On.
13 Flames Propaganda; The C in Canuck; This and That...
21 Alex Tanguay: Should you be excited?
26 Flames vs. Lightning from the 'Dome
29 Telling Night for Potential/Past Calgary Flames Backups
21 Alex Tanguay: Should you be excited?
26 Flames vs. Lightning from the 'Dome
29 Telling Night for Potential/Past Calgary Flames Backups
michael backlund??????? sorry, couldnt help myself. haha. i agree that we all love opening the big presents, but rarely do they shine the following june
your Gomez and Drury analysis is typical anti-NY bias.yawn
Everything looks like the lock-out was unuseful. When Ryan Malone has the same salary as Crosby and Lecavalier, things are not normal. And with the new Russian league who gives a ton of money to ''normal'' players in the NHL, things are getting worse. The NHL needs to find an issue...
Without the team salary cap, New York, Toronto, Detroit and a few other teams would have priced star players right out of the majority of the other teams. Calgary wouldn't have Iginla. Tampa wouldn't have Vinny. Washington wouldn't have Ovechkin, etc. It leveled the playing field and saved many franchises. But it hasn't stopped the problem of some GMs giving absurd contracts to ordinary players. You can only protect GMs from their own stupidity so much. At some point, they'll either have to learn to behave themselves - or pay the price later when their team cap is completely unworkable. And/or they get fired. Heh. The Flames are struggling to fill their roster under the cap because of some of Sutter's dumb signings. Eventually, some GM is going to screw up so bad he'll be placing a star on waivers just to get under the cap. Maybe that will send a message/lesson to the rest of them...
Hmmm Michael Backlund?You realize Nylander was on pace for over 75 pts right...not playing with Ovechkin and Semin most of the season??? Tell me lil Danny Briere could put up those numbers with Thomas Fleischman and Matt Pettinger has linemates
whoops! lol... Michael Backlund?? Thanks for the head's up, guess I should proof-read my posts! I meant Niklas Backstrom of course. Thanks guys. How much help was Nylander in your playoff run? Exactly.
And Jimbo... believe it or not, not everyone is anti-New York... but I am anti-bad signing which New York is really great at! Tell me those guys earned more money than guys like Iginla, Thornton and Lecavalier with a straight face. I didn't say they were bad players... just overpaid in terms of their production, the numbers speak for themselves.
good blog! its a fun read plus it seems to have people talking. as far as inflated ufa contracts go, its just the nature of the beast. it would be hard for a team to build entirely through the draft and within. and when there are thirty teams competing for the top players you need to offer above and beyond. just imagine what campbell and hossa are going to get, or even theodore. you know some team is going to offer him some crazy contract. its a gamble for sure.naturally i disagree with your smyth analysis. i know its cliche to say that he brings a lot of intangibles to the team, but he proved it in the post season. he even was able score a goal by picking his corner! plus for whatever reason, he always brings his A game for calgary!
mslepp, I think maybe one day someone needs to explain to you what a UFA is, and how they are opened to the highest bidder. I have never seen Iginla, Thornton and Lecavalier on the UFA market, but I'd imagine if they ever got their, the offers would be pretty sweet.
Yeah I agree with all of that, I don't expect the flames to go crazy, like glen sather crazy, and sign a guy for waaaay too much (just kidding Jimbo83 don't throw up). I think we are looking at maybe a teir 2 guy like stillman, he's a proven winner and unerrated every year. I guess we'll see! I think you posts are quality and maybe Ek should look at Making another flames blogger, Vetter is great but seems like he's part time.
jimbo... first of all you should probably read my entire post; you'll see that I addressed the difference in UFA contracts vs. re-signing players, and you're right, they would get hefty offers on the UFA market... my point regarding the two NYR guys is that they didn't produce enough to make up for their large contracts. If you can prove to me that they're worth that money, then by all means, please do. That's the purpose of the blog, to spawn differing opinions among hockey fans. Saneopinion, thanks for the kind words! I agree, Vetter's a great writer; would love to see some more frequent posts out of him for sure!
buffntuff... you're right about Smyth and that could be what makes me hate him so much! I may like to say he's not a natural "goal-scorer" but he sure looks like it whenever he comes to Cowtown to play that's for sure. Interested to see what you guys are going to do in goal... thought Theo would be a lock to re-sign... but don't get me started on him... haven't like Jose since he stole Iggy's Hart trophy in '02! lol...
Thats just great logic???So Crosby was worthless because he didnt help the Pens secure the division?
That's funny considering Gomez was our best player and Drury had 10 GWG as well as countless two-way perfection to help out the crappy defense of Rozsival and Malik.