I'm by no means the first person to mention that the Flames would do well to offer sheet O'Reilly and give up their 1st and 3rd for him. This is not a unique idea and the good guys over at Flames Nation have already laid out why it is such a good idea here:http://flamesnation.ca/20...oreilly-to-an-offer-sheet
Before I continue i'd like to note I'm a fan of the Fan960, I listen to the morning show and enjoy the banter, I listen driving home to Pat and enjoy the information and takes. That doesn't always mean I agree. Today Andrew Walker from the morning show and couple others, including myself, had a civil if heated discussion on twitter regarding the worth of Ryan O'reilly vs. Keeping the draft pick.
I was surprised that some Flames fans think that this team is a last place team, surely not having kipper for two weeks hurts but last place? The Flames, as most in the hockey world feel, are likely to fall in that 10th to 12th range unless something drastic happens trade wise or injury wise. The prevailing thought was, and i'm paraphrasing, "Don't trade or offer that first it could be MacKinnon!"
There is a few issues here with that. It would suppose the Flames finish last or with a higher weighting in the draft. It would suppose that MacKinnon is going to be a star and it would suppose that the Flames don't like another guy, maybe a defenceman.
What does a 1st get you? Well I posed to Andrew Walker that maybe it is over rated. For instance not only a 1st round but a 1st over all pick got you Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. RNH is a skilled player and Andrew Walker feels he is, "a freak". I would pose though that if you are really a winning team who likes to win what does Ryan Nugent Hopkins' 6 points in 12 games (none of them goals) do for you really today? Those are Stajan like numbers albeit on a 19 year old. Especially if you're the Flames who don't have a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to even grow!
The best case scenario is to offer sheet or trade for Ryan O'Reilly, get that #1 or possibly #1 Center the team has needed for a very long time. What comparing to Ryan Nugent- Hopkins we also have to remember that he's a first OVERALL, the flames once again will likely be 10-15 over all. rnrnIf we could go back to the draft and give up Jankowski and Gillies, two pretty decent prospects for Ryan O'Reilly, the leader of the Avs in Points and a Center to boot I'd say that deal is done 99% of the time. Not because Jankowski won't be good or Gillies but because their prospects, you just never know if they'll hit a wall or stop developing whereas with O'Reilly you have a guy who fits your biggest need and is still young!
Leland Irving was a first, got demoted today, Nemisz was a 1st, has played a cup of coffee at the NHL level and that will likely be it, and the list goes on. 1st round picks don't always equal success, Beartshi and Backlund are two that haven't proven a lick of anything but have skill and they are having a tough time at the NHL level.
Also there is nothing to suggest that should the Flames falter that 1st couldn't be recouped with another trade.
To summarize, if you have the opportunity to get a guy like O'Reilly (again refer back to that FN article) then you move forward.
We have only won 4 of 12 and although I love watching Hartleys style, we have to be honest that this is likely a bottom 5 team... with Kipper out we are going to start piling up the losses... this team is NOT GOOD DEFENSIVELY. There is no indication we are going to be where you suggest. Our first round pick is untradeable.
Oreilly is good but is he that good... im not convinced. What will it cost to sign him... 4 plus to 5 plus years... we must take our chances in this deep draft... if anything we should acquire more first round picks.
Using Nugents point totals in only his second year after only 12 games is not a great frame of reference either...